Uganda vs Tunisia: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 5Kick-off on March 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Hamz Stadium, Kampala
The Footlab AI model makes Tunisia the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Uganda. The most likely score is 1-1. If Tunisia wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,440 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Uganda vs Tunisia?
A very open match: only 42 Elo points separate Uganda (1,582) and Tunisia (1,623).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Uganda vs Tunisia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Uganda
3-4-3- 9A. Vula
- 14K. Boateng
- 7R. Mato
- 4K. Semakula
- 22B. Alhassan
- 15A. Sissako
- 23A. Kayondo
- 5T. Sibbick
- 3R. Torach
- 21S. Diaby
- 18D. Onyango
Tunisia
5-3-2- 18A. Ben Slimane
- 11Ismaël Gharbi
- 23S. Ltaief
- 13F. Sassi
- 12A. Maâloul
- 3M. Talbi
- 6A. Arous
- 4M. Nasraoui
- 2A. Abdi
- 20Y. Valery
- 16A. Dahmen
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 11:29 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Uganda have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Tunisia have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Congo DR(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Congo DR(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Libya(home) | 1-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Tunisia(away) | 1-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Dec 30, 2025 | Nigeria(home) | 1-3 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | Botswana(home) | 2-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Uganda(home) | 1-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jun 25, 2026 | Netherlands(home) | 1-3 | World Cup |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Japan(home) | 0-4 | World Cup |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Sweden(away) | 1-5 | World Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Uganda wins, 1 draw, 2 Tunisia wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Tunisia 1-1 Uganda | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Dec 23, 2025 | Tunisia 3-1 Uganda | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Jan 4, 2017 | Tunisia 2-0 Uganda | Friendlies |
How many goals should we expect?
Uganda score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Tunisia score 1.2 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uganda | 1.4 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Tunisia | 1.2 | 1.9 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Uganda sit 1st in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (4 points from 2 matches) and Tunisia sit 3rd (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uganda | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Tunisia | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
A question about Uganda vs Tunisia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Uganda vs Tunisia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Tunisia the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Uganda.
- Where and when is Uganda vs Tunisia played?
- Uganda vs Tunisia is played on March 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Hamz Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.