U. Catolica vs A. Italiano: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónRegular Season - 24Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Santiago de Chile
The Footlab model makes U. Catolica the favourite at 60%, against 22% for a draw and 18% for A. Italiano. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win U. Catolica vs A. Italiano?
U. Catolica starts as the favourite with a 114-point Elo edge (1,869 vs 1,756).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, U. Catolica have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; A. Italiano have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Nublense(home) | 1-2 | Primera División |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Estudiantes L.P.(home) | 0-3 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Estudiantes L.P.(away) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cobresal(home) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Concepción(away) | 0-3 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Union La Calera(home) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Everton de Vina(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Nublense(home) | 2-2 | Primera División |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Universidad de Concepcion(away) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Universidad de Chile(home) | 1-2 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 U. Catolica win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 A. Italiano win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | A. Italiano 3-4 U. Catolica | Primera División |
| Jul 20, 2025 | A. Italiano 1-1 U. Catolica | Primera División |
| Feb 17, 2025 | U. Catolica 3-1 A. Italiano | Primera División |
| Aug 18, 2024 | A. Italiano 2-1 U. Catolica | Primera División |
| Mar 17, 2024 | U. Catolica 0-0 A. Italiano | Primera División |
| Aug 5, 2023 | U. Catolica 0-2 A. Italiano | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: A. Italiano vs U. Catolica on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
U. Catolica score 2.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; A. Italiano score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Catolica | 2.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
| A. Italiano | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
U. Catolica sit 2nd in Primera División (26 points from 15 matches) and A. Italiano sit 13th (16 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | U. Catolica | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 35 | 20 | 26 |
| 5 | U. Catolica | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 41 | 28 | 30 |
| 13 | A. Italiano | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 21 | 16 |
| 13 | A. Italiano | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 23 | 26 | 22 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for U. Catolica vs A. Italiano?
- The Footlab model makes U. Catolica the favourite at 60%, against 22% for a draw and 18% for A. Italiano.
- Where and when is U. Catolica vs A. Italiano played?
- U. Catolica vs A. Italiano is played on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.