UCAM Murcia II vs Alcantarilla: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Group 13 - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Mayayo, Sangonera la Verde
The Footlab model makes UCAM Murcia II the favourite at 69%, against 20% for a draw and 11% for Alcantarilla. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win UCAM Murcia II vs Alcantarilla?
UCAM Murcia II starts as the favourite with a 250-point Elo edge (1,841 vs 1,591).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, UCAM Murcia II have 6 wins, 8 draws and 1 defeats; Alcantarilla have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Águilas II(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 3, 2026 | Muleño(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Mazarrón FC(home) | 3-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | El Palmar(away) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Balsicas Atlético(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2025 | Atlético Pulpileño(away) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 4, 2025 | Águilas II(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Lorca Deportiva(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Santomera(home) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 13, 2025 | UCAM Murcia II(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 UCAM Murcia II win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Alcantarilla win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2025 | UCAM Murcia II 0-0 Alcantarilla | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Alcantarilla 1-0 UCAM Murcia II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 4, 2024 | Alcantarilla 1-1 UCAM Murcia II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Jan 14, 2024 | UCAM Murcia II 1-0 Alcantarilla | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Mar 12, 2023 | UCAM Murcia II 1-1 Alcantarilla | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Nov 16, 2022 | Alcantarilla 0-1 UCAM Murcia II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
Last archived meeting: UCAM Murcia II vs Alcantarilla on Apr 13, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
UCAM Murcia II score 2.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Alcantarilla score 0.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCAM Murcia II | 2.3 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Alcantarilla | 0.5 | 1.6 | 6 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | UCAM Murcia II | 34 | 13 | 16 | 5 | 55 | 37 | 55 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for UCAM Murcia II vs Alcantarilla?
- The Footlab model makes UCAM Murcia II the favourite at 69%, against 20% for a draw and 11% for Alcantarilla.
- Where and when is UCAM Murcia II vs Alcantarilla played?
- UCAM Murcia II vs Alcantarilla is played on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Mayayo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 13.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 25, 2026Los GarresvsÁguilas II
- Oct 25, 2026SFC MinervavsEl Palmar
- Oct 25, 2026Unión MolinensevsBala Azul
- Oct 25, 2026AlgarvsMazarrón FC
- Oct 25, 2026Balsicas AtléticovsCartagena LU II
- Oct 25, 2026SantomeravsSan Javier
- Oct 25, 2026Santa CruzvsAtlético Pulpileño
- Oct 25, 2026Bullas DeportivovsOlímpico Totana