Match

UD Ourense vs Mérida AD: prediction and stats

Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 12Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio O Couto, Ourense

UD OurenseMérida AD

The Footlab AI model makes UD Ourense the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Mérida AD. The most likely score is 1-1. If UD Ourense wins, the most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,401 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win UD Ourense vs Mérida AD?

A very open match: only 49 Elo points separate UD Ourense (1,909) and Mérida AD (1,860).

43%28%29%
UD Ourense winDrawMérida AD win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for UD Ourense vs Mérida AD

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

UD Ourense

4-3-3
  1. 10David Ferreiro
  2. 17Xabi Dominguez
  3. 11Sergi Baldrich
  1. 14R. Martinez
  2. 22D. Tejon
  3. 16Álvaro Bastida
  1. 4J. Labrada
  2. 5Varo
  3. 6N. Gonzalez
  4. 3Julio Cabrera
  1. 1Manuel Vizoso

Mérida AD

4-3-3
  1. 21Raúl Beneit
  2. 19D. Sandoval
  3. 11S. El Ftouhi
  1. 6Jota
  2. 23Geovanny Almeida
  3. 8Martín Solar
  1. 2Alejandro Agustín
  2. 4Gonzalez Nacho
  3. 16Fito
  4. 5Hugo Sanz
  1. 1A. Csenterics

Computed on October 15, 2026 at 02:02 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, UD Ourense have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Mérida AD have 5, 1 and 9.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

UD Ourense
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 10, 2026Barakaldo(home)1-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 3, 2026Real Unión(away)1-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 27, 2026Cacereño(home)0-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 19, 2026Unionistas de Salamanca(away)1-3Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 12, 2026UD Logroñés(home)0-3Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Mérida AD
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Pontevedra(away)2-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 4, 2026Cacereño(home)2-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 27, 2026UD Logroñés(home)3-5Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 19, 2026Ponferradina(away)0-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 12, 2026Mirandes(home)3-4Primera División RFEF - Group 1

How many goals should we expect?

UD Ourense score 1.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Mérida AD score 1.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
UD Ourense1.01.156/156/15
Mérida AD1.11.926/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

UD Ourense sit 19th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (5 points from 7 matches) and Mérida AD sit 12th (9 points from 7 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
12Mérida AD730411129
19UD Ourense71243105

A question about UD Ourense vs Mérida AD?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for UD Ourense vs Mérida AD?
The Footlab AI model makes UD Ourense the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Mérida AD.
Where and when is UD Ourense vs Mérida AD played?
UD Ourense vs Mérida AD is played on November 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio O Couto, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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