Where and when is UD Ourense vs Mérida AD played?

UD Ourense vs Mérida AD is played on November 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio O Couto, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

UD Ourense vs Mérida AD: prediction and stats

Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 12Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio O Couto, Ourense

UD Ourense

Mérida AD

The Footlab model makes UD Ourense the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Mérida AD. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win UD Ourense vs Mérida AD?

UD Ourense starts as the favourite with a 104-point Elo edge (1,977 vs 1,873).

UD Ourense win53 %

Draw26 %

Mérida AD win20 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, UD Ourense have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Mérida AD have 4, 3 and 8.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

UD Ourense
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 31, 2026	Conquense(away)	2-0	Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs
May 24, 2026	Conquense(home)	1-0	Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs
May 16, 2026	Reddis(home)	2-1	Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs
May 9, 2026	Reddis(away)	0-0	Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs
May 3, 2026	Atlético Astorga(home)	1-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Mérida AD
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 14, 2026	Alcorcon(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 7, 2026	Leganes(away)	0-3	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 28, 2026	Al-Nassr(home)	0-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026	Benfica B(away)	0-4	Friendlies Clubs
May 23, 2026	Osasuna II(away)	2-1	Primera División RFEF - Group 1

How many goals should we expect?

UD Ourense score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Mérida AD score 0.9 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
UD Ourense	1.5	1.0	6	7/15	8/15
Mérida AD	0.9	1.9	1	8/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
10	Mérida AD	38	14	10	14	47	53	52

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for UD Ourense vs Mérida AD?: The Footlab model makes UD Ourense the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Mérida AD.
Where and when is UD Ourense vs Mérida AD played?: UD Ourense vs Mérida AD is played on November 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio O Couto, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.