Match

Ponferradina vs Cacereño: prediction and stats

Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 12Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Toralín, Ponferrada

PonferradinaCacereño

The Footlab AI model makes Ponferradina the favourite at 39%, against 34% for a draw and 27% for Cacereño. The most likely score is 0-0. If Ponferradina wins, the most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,495 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Ponferradina vs Cacereño?

A very open match: only 34 Elo points separate Ponferradina (1,963) and Cacereño (1,929).

39%34%27%
Ponferradina winDrawCacereño win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Ponferradina vs Cacereño

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Ponferradina

4-3-3
  1. 7C. Calderon
  2. 10Borja Valle
  3. 12Unai Sabroso Lorenzo
  1. 6Fede San Emeterio
  2. 8Arturo Molina
  3. 15O. Vacas
  1. 3Sergio Nieto
  2. 4A. Jelbat
  3. 24Koke
  4. 2David Andújar
  1. 1Álex Domínguez

Cacereño

4-3-3
  1. 18Juan Artola
  2. 16Sergio Navarro
  3. 9O. Chit
  1. 6N. Conesa
  2. 8Álvaro Gete
  3. 5Toño Calvo
  1. 22Adrián Expósito
  2. 17Sergio López
  3. 2I. Martinez
  4. 3Manolo Molina
  1. 1Diego Nieves

Computed on October 16, 2026 at 09:09 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ponferradina have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Cacereño have 8, 3 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Ponferradina
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Real Avilés(home)0-2Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 4, 2026Mirandes(home)1-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 27, 2026Pontevedra(away)1-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 19, 2026Mérida AD(home)1-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 13, 2026Deportivo La Coruña II(away)1-2Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Cacereño
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 10, 2026Unionistas de Salamanca(home)1-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 4, 2026Mérida AD(away)0-2Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 27, 2026UD Ourense(away)0-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 20, 2026Arenas Getxo(home)3-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 16, 2026Recreativo Huelva(away)1-2Copa Federacion

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Ponferradina wins, 1 draw, 0 Cacereño wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 15, 2026Cacereño 0-0 PonferradinaPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Nov 2, 2025Ponferradina 2-0 CacereñoPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Dec 1, 2021Cacereño 1-2 PonferradinaCopa del Rey

Last archived meeting: Cacereño vs Ponferradina on Mar 15, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Ponferradina score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Cacereño score 1.4 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 27% probability of over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Ponferradina0.91.185/155/15
Cacereño1.40.867/156/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Ponferradina sit 9th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (11 points from 7 matches) and Cacereño sit 5th (12 points from 7 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
5Cacereño73317412
9Ponferradina73225511

A question about Ponferradina vs Cacereño?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Ponferradina vs Cacereño?
The Footlab AI model makes Ponferradina the favourite at 39%, against 34% for a draw and 27% for Cacereño.
Where and when is Ponferradina vs Cacereño played?
Ponferradina vs Cacereño is played on November 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Toralín, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 27% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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