União Santarém vs Mafra: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 9Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo Chã das Padeiras, Santarém
The Footlab model makes Mafra the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for União Santarém. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win União Santarém vs Mafra?
A very open match: only 65 Elo points separate União Santarém (1,854) and Mafra (1,918).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, União Santarém have 1 wins, 6 draws and 8 defeats; Mafra have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | CF Os Belenenses(away) | 0-5 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Oliveirense(home) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | SC Covilha(away) | 0-2 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Academica(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Varzim(home) | 2-2 | Liga 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lusitano Évora 1911(away) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atlético CP(away) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(home) | 5-0 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Alverca(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | FC Fredericia(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 União Santarém win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Mafra win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2026 | Mafra 2-1 União Santarém | Liga 3 |
| Mar 4, 2026 | União Santarém 3-1 Mafra | Liga 3 |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Mafra 0-0 União Santarém | Liga 3 |
| Oct 26, 2025 | União Santarém 1-2 Mafra | Liga 3 |
| Oct 2, 2022 | União Santarém 0-1 Mafra | Taça de Portugal |
Last archived meeting: Mafra vs União Santarém on Apr 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
União Santarém score 0.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Mafra score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| União Santarém | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Mafra | 1.7 | 1.5 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
União Santarém sit 10th in Liga 3 (1 points from 3 matches) and Mafra sit 7th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Mafra | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | União Santarém | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for União Santarém vs Mafra?
- The Footlab model makes Mafra the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for União Santarém.
- Where and when is União Santarém vs Mafra played?
- União Santarém vs Mafra is played on November 8, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Chã das Padeiras, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.