Vitória de Sernache vs Atlético CP: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 9Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal Nuno Álvares Pereira, Cernache do Bonjardim
The Footlab model makes Atlético CP the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Vitória de Sernache. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vitória de Sernache vs Atlético CP?
A very open match: only 75 Elo points separate Vitória de Sernache (1,854) and Atlético CP (1,930).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vitória de Sernache have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Atlético CP have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Oliveirense(away) | 2-3 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | SC Covilha(home) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Mafra(away) | 0-5 | Liga 3 |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Leça(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| May 31, 2026 | Louletano(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | SC Covilha(away) | 3-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mafra(home) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lusitano Évora 1911(away) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Benfica B(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 2, 2026 | Lusitano Évora 1911(away) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Vitória de Sernache score 1.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Atlético CP score 1.5 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória de Sernache | 1.0 | 1.1 | 7 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Atlético CP | 1.5 | 0.8 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vitória de Sernache sit 9th in Liga 3 (1 points from 3 matches) and Atlético CP sit 2nd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Atlético CP | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Vitória de Sernache | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vitória de Sernache vs Atlético CP?
- The Footlab model makes Atlético CP the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Vitória de Sernache.
- Where and when is Vitória de Sernache vs Atlético CP played?
- Vitória de Sernache vs Atlético CP is played on November 8, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal Nuno Álvares Pereira, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.