Caldas vs Oliveirense: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 9Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo da Mata, Caldas da Rainha
The Footlab model makes Caldas the favourite at 40%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for Oliveirense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caldas vs Oliveirense?
A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate Caldas (1,816) and Oliveirense (1,809).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caldas have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Oliveirense have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Louletano(home) | 2-4 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lusitano Évora 1911(home) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | CF Os Belenenses(away) | 0-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Academica(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 2, 2026 | 1º Dezembro(away) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(home) | 3-2 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | União Santarém(away) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Louletano(home) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| May 17, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(home) | 1-5 | Segunda Liga |
| May 9, 2026 | Feirense(away) | 2-1 | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Caldas score 1.0 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Oliveirense score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caldas | 1.0 | 1.2 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Oliveirense | 0.9 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Caldas sit 8th in Liga 3 (1 points from 3 matches) and Oliveirense sit 3rd (5 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Oliveirense | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| 8 | Caldas | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caldas vs Oliveirense?
- The Footlab model makes Caldas the favourite at 40%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for Oliveirense.
- Where and when is Caldas vs Oliveirense played?
- Caldas vs Oliveirense is played on November 8, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo da Mata, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.