Unión Molinense vs Santomera: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Group 13 - 33Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas, Molina de Segura
The Footlab model makes Unión Molinense the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Santomera. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Unión Molinense vs Santomera?
Unión Molinense starts as the favourite with a 140-point Elo edge (1,827 vs 1,687).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Unión Molinense have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Santomera have 4, 0 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Olímpico Totana(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 17, 2026 | Olímpico Totana(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 10, 2026 | Real Murcia II(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 3, 2026 | Yeclano II(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | SFC Minerva(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cieza(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Olímpico Totana(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 2, 2026 | Cartagena LU II(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Real Murcia II(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Yeclano II(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Unión Molinense win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Santomera win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2026 | Santomera 1-2 Unión Molinense | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Unión Molinense 0-1 Santomera | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 25, 2025 | Unión Molinense 1-2 Santomera | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| May 17, 2025 | Santomera 0-0 Unión Molinense | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Santomera 0-1 Unión Molinense | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Unión Molinense 2-2 Santomera | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
Last archived meeting: Santomera vs Unión Molinense on Feb 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Unión Molinense score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Santomera score 1.1 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unión Molinense | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Santomera | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Unión Molinense sit 3rd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 (59 points from 34 matches) and Santomera sit 15th (32 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Unión Molinense | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 46 | 34 | 59 |
| 15 | Santomera | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 38 | 64 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Unión Molinense vs Santomera?
- The Footlab model makes Unión Molinense the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Santomera.
- Where and when is Unión Molinense vs Santomera played?
- Unión Molinense vs Santomera is played on May 2, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 13.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.