Unión Molinense vs UCAM Murcia II: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Group 13 - 29Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas, Molina de Segura
The Footlab model makes UCAM Murcia II the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Unión Molinense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Unión Molinense vs UCAM Murcia II?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate Unión Molinense (1,827) and UCAM Murcia II (1,844).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Unión Molinense have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; UCAM Murcia II have 6, 8 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Olímpico Totana(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 17, 2026 | Olímpico Totana(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 10, 2026 | Real Murcia II(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 3, 2026 | Yeclano II(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | SFC Minerva(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Águilas II(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 3, 2026 | Muleño(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Mazarrón FC(home) | 3-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | El Palmar(away) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Balsicas Atlético(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Unión Molinense win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 UCAM Murcia II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2026 | Unión Molinense 3-3 UCAM Murcia II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Nov 23, 2025 | UCAM Murcia II 0-1 Unión Molinense | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UCAM Murcia II 2-2 Unión Molinense | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Unión Molinense 2-0 UCAM Murcia II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Mar 3, 2024 | Unión Molinense 0-1 UCAM Murcia II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Oct 15, 2023 | UCAM Murcia II 1-0 Unión Molinense | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
Last archived meeting: Unión Molinense vs UCAM Murcia II on Apr 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Unión Molinense score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; UCAM Murcia II score 2.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unión Molinense | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| UCAM Murcia II | 2.3 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Unión Molinense sit 3rd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 (59 points from 34 matches) and UCAM Murcia II sit 6th (55 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Unión Molinense | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 46 | 34 | 59 |
| 6 | UCAM Murcia II | 34 | 13 | 16 | 5 | 55 | 37 | 55 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Unión Molinense vs UCAM Murcia II?
- The Footlab model makes UCAM Murcia II the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Unión Molinense.
- Where and when is Unión Molinense vs UCAM Murcia II played?
- Unión Molinense vs UCAM Murcia II is played on April 4, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 13.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.