Utrecht vs Heerenveen: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 17Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht
The Footlab model makes Utrecht the favourite at 47%, against 24% for a draw and 29% for Heerenveen. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Utrecht vs Heerenveen?
A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Utrecht (1,995) and Heerenveen (1,984).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Utrecht have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Heerenveen have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(away) | 3-3 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar(home) | 1-4 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Groningen(away) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Sevilla(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Cambuur(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | PEC Zwolle(home) | 0-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Twente(home) | 1-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Volos NFC(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | OH Leuven(home) | 4-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Utrecht win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Heerenveen win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | Utrecht 3-2 Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Heerenveen 1-1 Utrecht | Eredivisie |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Utrecht 2-2 Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Utrecht 2-0 Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Heerenveen 1-1 Utrecht | Eredivisie |
| Apr 7, 2024 | Heerenveen 2-3 Utrecht | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: Utrecht vs Heerenveen on May 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Utrecht score 1.7 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Heerenveen score 2.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | 1.7 | 1.9 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Heerenveen | 2.1 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Utrecht sit 15th in Eredivisie (1 points from 3 matches) and Heerenveen sit 9th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Heerenveen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 15 | Utrecht | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Utrecht vs Heerenveen?
- The Footlab model makes Utrecht the favourite at 47%, against 24% for a draw and 29% for Heerenveen.
- Where and when is Utrecht vs Heerenveen played?
- Utrecht vs Heerenveen is played on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Galgenwaard, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.