Where and when is V-varen Nagasaki vs Gamba Osaka played?

V-varen Nagasaki vs Gamba Osaka is played on September 2, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at PEACE STADIUM Connected by SoftBank, in the J1 League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

V-varen Nagasaki vs Gamba Osaka: prediction and stats

J1 LeagueRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)PEACE STADIUM Connected by SoftBank, Nagasaki

V-varen Nagasaki

Gamba Osaka

The Footlab model makes Gamba Osaka the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for V-varen Nagasaki. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win V-varen Nagasaki vs Gamba Osaka?

Gamba Osaka starts as the favourite with a 114-point Elo edge (2,024 vs 1,910).

V-varen Nagasaki win29 %

Draw25 %

Gamba Osaka win45 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, V-varen Nagasaki have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Gamba Osaka have 7, 4 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

V-varen Nagasaki
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Kashiwa Reysol(away)	2-4	J1 League
Aug 15, 2026	Fagiano Okayama(away)	0-1	J1 League
Aug 9, 2026	Kyoto Sanga(home)	2-1	J1 League
Jul 17, 2026	Utrecht(away)	2-3	Friendlies Clubs
Jun 6, 2026	Mito Hollyhock(away)	1-0	J1 League

Gamba Osaka
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Nagoya Grampus(away)	1-3	J1 League
Aug 15, 2026	Mito Hollyhock(away)	1-1	J1 League
Aug 11, 2026	Gangwon FC(away)	1-0	AFC Champions League Elite
Aug 7, 2026	Urawa(home)	4-3	J1 League
Jul 15, 2026	Red Bull Salzburg(away)	3-0	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 V-varen Nagasaki win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Gamba Osaka win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 25, 2026	V-varen Nagasaki 1-1 Gamba Osaka	J1 League
Mar 8, 2026	Gamba Osaka 3-2 V-varen Nagasaki	J1 League
Feb 1, 2025	Gamba Osaka 5-5 V-varen Nagasaki	Friendlies Clubs
Jun 26, 2019	Gamba Osaka 0-2 V-varen Nagasaki	J-League Cup
Jun 19, 2019	V-varen Nagasaki 1-4 Gamba Osaka	J-League Cup
Nov 24, 2018	Gamba Osaka 2-1 V-varen Nagasaki	J1 League

Last archived meeting: V-varen Nagasaki vs Gamba Osaka on Apr 25, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

V-varen Nagasaki score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Gamba Osaka score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
V-varen Nagasaki	1.2	1.5	2	9/15	8/15
Gamba Osaka	1.7	1.3	4	9/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

V-varen Nagasaki sit 16th in J1 League (3 points from 3 matches) and Gamba Osaka sit 10th (4 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
10	Gamba Osaka	3	1	1	1	6	7	4
16	V-varen Nagasaki	3	1	0	2	4	6	3

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for V-varen Nagasaki vs Gamba Osaka?: The Footlab model makes Gamba Osaka the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for V-varen Nagasaki.
Where and when is V-varen Nagasaki vs Gamba Osaka played?: V-varen Nagasaki vs Gamba Osaka is played on September 2, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at PEACE STADIUM Connected by SoftBank, in the J1 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.