Mito Hollyhock vs Kashima: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)K’s Denki Stadium, Mito
The Footlab model makes Kashima the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Mito Hollyhock. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mito Hollyhock vs Kashima?
Kashima is a heavy favourite: 2,158 Elo points against 1,829 — a 328-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mito Hollyhock have 2 wins, 5 draws and 8 defeats; Kashima have 11, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kyoto Sanga(away) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Gamba Osaka(home) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kashiwa Reysol(away) | 1-2 | J1 League |
| Jun 6, 2026 | V-varen Nagasaki(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| May 30, 2026 | V-varen Nagasaki(away) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Avispa Fukuoka(home) | 3-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(home) | 2-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Yokohama F. Marinos(away) | 4-3 | J1 League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Vegalta Sendai(home) | 5-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(home) | 2-0 | J1 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Mito Hollyhock win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Kashima win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2026 | Kashima 3-0 Mito Hollyhock | J1 League |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Mito Hollyhock 1-1 Kashima | J1 League |
| Feb 10, 2024 | Kashima 1-0 Mito Hollyhock | Friendlies Clubs |
| Oct 14, 2015 | Kashima 0-0 Mito Hollyhock | Emperor Cup |
Last archived meeting: Kashima vs Mito Hollyhock on May 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mito Hollyhock score 1.1 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Kashima score 1.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mito Hollyhock | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Kashima | 1.9 | 1.0 | 8 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mito Hollyhock sit 7th in J1 League (4 points from 3 matches) and Kashima sit 3rd (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kashima | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 9 |
| 7 | Mito Hollyhock | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mito Hollyhock vs Kashima?
- The Footlab model makes Kashima the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Mito Hollyhock.
- Where and when is Mito Hollyhock vs Kashima played?
- Mito Hollyhock vs Kashima is played on September 2, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at K’s Denki Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 2, 2026Sanfrecce HiroshimavsNagoya Grampus
- Sep 2, 2026Shimizu S-pulsevsFC Tokyo
- Sep 2, 2026V-varen NagasakivsGamba Osaka
- Sep 2, 2026Cerezo OsakavsKashiwa Reysol
- Sep 2, 2026Yokohama F. MarinosvsKyoto Sanga
- Sep 2, 2026JEF United ChibavsFagiano Okayama
- Sep 2, 2026Machida ZelviavsKawasaki Frontale
- Sep 2, 2026Tokyo VerdyvsVissel Kobe