Shimizu S-pulse vs FC Tokyo: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)IAI Stadium Nihondaira, Shizuoka
The Footlab model makes FC Tokyo the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Shimizu S-pulse. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Shimizu S-pulse vs FC Tokyo?
FC Tokyo starts as the favourite with a 102-point Elo edge (2,003 vs 1,901).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Shimizu S-pulse have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; FC Tokyo have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cerezo Osaka(away) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Yokohama F. Marinos(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(away) | 1-0 | J1 League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Karlsruher SC(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Yokohama F. Marinos(away) | 0-3 | J1 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(home) | 2-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(away) | 2-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Machida Zelvia(home) | 1-5 | J1 League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Shimizu S-pulse win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 FC Tokyo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2025 | Shimizu S-pulse 1-1 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| Apr 29, 2025 | FC Tokyo 0-2 Shimizu S-pulse | J1 League |
| Aug 7, 2022 | FC Tokyo 0-2 Shimizu S-pulse | J1 League |
| May 25, 2022 | Shimizu S-pulse 0-3 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| Nov 3, 2021 | FC Tokyo 4-0 Shimizu S-pulse | J1 League |
| May 26, 2021 | Shimizu S-pulse 3-0 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Shimizu S-pulse vs FC Tokyo on Oct 4, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Shimizu S-pulse score 1.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; FC Tokyo score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shimizu S-pulse | 1.0 | 1.3 | 2 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| FC Tokyo | 1.7 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Shimizu S-pulse sit 15th in J1 League (3 points from 3 matches) and FC Tokyo sit 11th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | FC Tokyo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 15 | Shimizu S-pulse | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Shimizu S-pulse vs FC Tokyo?
- The Footlab model makes FC Tokyo the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Shimizu S-pulse.
- Where and when is Shimizu S-pulse vs FC Tokyo played?
- Shimizu S-pulse vs FC Tokyo is played on September 2, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at IAI Stadium Nihondaira, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 2, 2026Sanfrecce HiroshimavsNagoya Grampus
- Sep 2, 2026V-varen NagasakivsGamba Osaka
- Sep 2, 2026Cerezo OsakavsKashiwa Reysol
- Sep 2, 2026Yokohama F. MarinosvsKyoto Sanga
- Sep 2, 2026JEF United ChibavsFagiano Okayama
- Sep 2, 2026Machida ZelviavsKawasaki Frontale
- Sep 2, 2026Mito HollyhockvsKashima
- Sep 2, 2026Tokyo VerdyvsVissel Kobe