Valencia vs Real Sociedad: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia
The Footlab model makes Valencia the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Real Sociedad. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Valencia vs Real Sociedad?
A very open match: only 4 Elo points separate Valencia (2,102) and Real Sociedad (2,106).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Valencia have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Real Sociedad have 2, 6 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newcastle(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stoke City(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Derby(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Castellón(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Eldense(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | 1. FC Köln(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Toulouse(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Aston Villa(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Valencia win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Real Sociedad win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Real Sociedad 3-4 Valencia | La Liga |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Valencia 1-1 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Jan 19, 2025 | Valencia 1-0 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Real Sociedad 3-0 Valencia | La Liga |
| May 16, 2024 | Real Sociedad 1-0 Valencia | La Liga |
| Sep 27, 2023 | Valencia 0-1 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Real Sociedad vs Valencia on May 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Valencia score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Real Sociedad score 1.5 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Real Sociedad | 1.5 | 1.8 | 0 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Valencia vs Real Sociedad?
- The Footlab model makes Valencia the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Real Sociedad.
- Where and when is Valencia vs Real Sociedad played?
- Valencia vs Real Sociedad is played on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Mestalla, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.