Metta / LU vs Riga Mariners: prediction and stats
1. LigaRegular Season - 22Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Daugavas Stadionā, Riga
The Footlab model makes Metta / LU the favourite at 58%, against 19% for a draw and 22% for Riga Mariners. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Metta / LU vs Riga Mariners?
A very open match: only 29 Elo points separate Metta / LU (1,651) and Riga Mariners (1,622).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Metta / LU have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Riga Mariners have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Rēzekne FA(away) | 2-0 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Riga(away) | 1-4 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Rīgas FS II(home) | 12-1 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Riga FC II(away) | 2-2 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Tukums II(home) | 9-0 | 1. Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Tukums II(home) | 4-2 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Super Nova 2(away) | 3-0 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | JFK Ventspils(home) | 1-1 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Leevon / PPK(away) | 1-2 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 4, 2026 | JDFS Alberts(away) | 4-0 | 1. Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Metta / LU win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Riga Mariners win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Riga Mariners 2-2 Metta / LU | 1. Liga |
Last archived meeting: Riga Mariners vs Metta / LU on May 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Metta / LU score 4.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Riga Mariners score 2.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 79% probability of over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metta / LU | 4.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 9/15 | 13/15 |
| Riga Mariners | 2.7 | 0.9 | 7 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Metta / LU sit 1st in 1. Liga (25 points from 10 matches) and Riga Mariners sit 4th (22 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metta / LU | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 9 | 25 |
| 1 | Metta / LU | 17 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 71 | 14 | 44 |
| 4 | Riga Mariners | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 19 | 10 | 22 |
| 4 | Riga Mariners | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 34 | 15 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Metta / LU vs Riga Mariners?
- The Footlab model makes Metta / LU the favourite at 58%, against 19% for a draw and 22% for Riga Mariners.
- Where and when is Metta / LU vs Riga Mariners played?
- Metta / LU vs Riga Mariners is played on October 10, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Daugavas Stadionā, in the 1. Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 79% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.