Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme: prediction and stats
MeistriliigaRegular Season - 31Kick-off on October 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Pärnu Rannastaadion, Pärnu
The Footlab model makes Kalju Nomme the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Vaprus. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme?
Kalju Nomme starts as the favourite with a 162-point Elo edge (1,736 vs 1,574).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vaprus have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Kalju Nomme have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Flora Tallinn(home) | 1-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kalju Nomme(away) | 1-3 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Phoenix(away) | 5-0 | Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(home) | 1-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Tabasalu Ulasabat(away) | 4-1 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Laagri(away) | 0-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vaprus(home) | 3-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Poseidon(away) | 12-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Trans Narva(away) | 2-0 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Tammeka(home) | 5-1 | Meistriliiga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Vaprus win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Kalju Nomme win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kalju Nomme 3-1 Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| May 30, 2026 | Vaprus 3-1 Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Kalju Nomme 1-2 Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Kalju Nomme 1-0 Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Kalju Nomme 1-2 Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| Jun 27, 2025 | Vaprus 2-2 Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
Last archived meeting: Kalju Nomme vs Vaprus on Aug 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Vaprus score 1.9 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Kalju Nomme score 2.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vaprus | 1.9 | 1.6 | 4 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Kalju Nomme | 2.4 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vaprus sit 7th in Meistriliiga (27 points from 23 matches) and Kalju Nomme sit 2nd (44 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kalju Nomme | 24 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 43 | 19 | 44 |
| 7 | Vaprus | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 31 | 44 | 27 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme?
- The Footlab model makes Kalju Nomme the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Vaprus.
- Where and when is Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme played?
- Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme is played on October 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Pärnu Rannastaadion, in the Meistriliiga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.