Nõmme United vs Vaprus: prediction and stats
MeistriliigaRegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 23, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Männiku staadion, Tallinn
The Footlab AI model makes Nõmme United the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Vaprus. The most likely score is 1-1. If Nõmme United wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,857 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nõmme United vs Vaprus?
On Elo ratings, Nõmme United has 1,541 points and Vaprus 1,563.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Nõmme United vs Vaprus
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Nõmme United
3-4-1-2- 20K. Mätas
- 2Y. Morishige
- 51Z. Beglarishvili
- 10A. Frolov
- 26K. Oostenbrink
- 7A. Torres
- 14N. Vassiljev
- 45H. Järvelaid
- 50S. Geiger
- 6M. Palts
- 71G. Pürg
Vaprus
3-4-1-2- 8T. Pajo
- 10S. Viidas
- 20H. Välja
- 90J. Sild
- 24Mathias Villota
- 14R. Orm
- 42M. Limberg
- 28M. Lipp
- 15K. Aloe
- 66U. Nomm
- 16O. Nõmm
Computed on October 20, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nõmme United have 5 wins, 0 draws and 10 defeats; Vaprus have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Kalju Nomme(home) | 3-0 | Meistriliiga |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Laagri(away) | 0-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Tammeka(away) | 0-4 | Meistriliiga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Paide(home) | 1-3 | Meistriliiga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Flora Tallinn(home) | 2-3 | Meistriliiga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Laagri(away) | 0-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Kalju Nomme(home) | 2-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Trans Narva(home) | 2-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Flora Tallinn(away) | 2-3 | Meistriliiga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Paide(away) | 0-2 | Meistriliiga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Nõmme United wins, 0 draws, 3 Vaprus wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | Vaprus 1-0 Nõmme United | Meistriliiga |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Nõmme United 3-2 Vaprus | Cup |
| May 2, 2026 | Vaprus 2-3 Nõmme United | Meistriliiga |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Nõmme United 7-1 Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| Feb 12, 2025 | Vaprus 7-0 Nõmme United | Friendlies Clubs |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Nõmme United 0-2 Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
Last archived meeting: Vaprus vs Nõmme United on Sep 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nõmme United score 1.9 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Vaprus score 1.7 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nõmme United | 1.9 | 2.0 | 3 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
| Vaprus | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nõmme United sit 9th in Meistriliiga (31 points from 32 matches) and Vaprus sit 7th (36 points from 32 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Vaprus | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 43 | 63 | 36 |
| 9 | Nõmme United | 32 | 10 | 1 | 21 | 50 | 74 | 31 |
A question about Nõmme United vs Vaprus?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nõmme United vs Vaprus?
- The Footlab AI model makes Nõmme United the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Vaprus.
- Where and when is Nõmme United vs Vaprus played?
- Nõmme United vs Vaprus is played on October 23, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Männiku staadion, in the Meistriliiga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.