Velez Sarsfield vs Platense: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 11Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio José Amalfitani, Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Velez Sarsfield the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Platense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Velez Sarsfield vs Platense?
Velez Sarsfield starts as the favourite with a 126-point Elo edge (1,938 vs 1,813).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Velez Sarsfield have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Platense have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Defensa Y Justicia(home) | 1-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Boca Juniors(away) | 1-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Independiente(home) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Talleres Cordoba(away) | 3-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Instituto Cordoba(home) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Barracas Central(away) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Coquimbo Unido(away) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Boca Juniors(home) | 1-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Coquimbo Unido(home) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Independiente(away) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Velez Sarsfield win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Platense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Platense 0-2 Velez Sarsfield | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 19, 2025 | Platense 0-0 Velez Sarsfield | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jan 29, 2025 | Velez Sarsfield 0-1 Platense | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 25, 2024 | Platense 0-2 Velez Sarsfield | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Mar 14, 2023 | Velez Sarsfield 1-1 Platense | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jun 12, 2022 | Velez Sarsfield 0-1 Platense | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Last archived meeting: Platense vs Velez Sarsfield on Mar 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Velez Sarsfield score 1.4 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Platense score 0.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Velez Sarsfield | 1.4 | 0.8 | 6 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
| Platense | 0.9 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Velez Sarsfield sit 3rd in Liga Profesional Argentina (28 points from 16 matches) and Platense sit 12th (16 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 28 |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 11 |
| 12 | Platense | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 16 |
| 14 | Platense | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Velez Sarsfield vs Platense?
- The Footlab model makes Velez Sarsfield the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Platense.
- Where and when is Velez Sarsfield vs Platense played?
- Velez Sarsfield vs Platense is played on October 4, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio José Amalfitani, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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