Vfb Marburg vs Kassel: prediction and stats
Oberliga - HessenHessen - 12Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Stadion an der Gisselberger Straße, Marburg
The Footlab model makes Vfb Marburg the favourite at 45%, against 21% for a draw and 34% for Kassel. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vfb Marburg vs Kassel?
A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate Vfb Marburg (1,753) and Kassel (1,745).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vfb Marburg have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Kassel have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | 1960 Hanau(away) | 1-0 | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kassel 2(home) | 1-1 | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Eintracht Stadtallendorf(home) | 2-2 | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Hünfelder SV(away) | 1-0 | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bayern Alzenau(home) | 2-1 | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | TuBa Pohlheim(away) | 1-2 | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Friedberg(home) | 1-1 | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Baunatal(home) | 3-1 | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Unter-Flockenbach(away) | 0-6 | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Darmstadt 98 II(home) | 1-5 | Oberliga - Hessen |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Vfb Marburg win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Kassel win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Vfb Marburg 2-5 Kassel | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Aug 3, 2025 | Kassel 0-2 Vfb Marburg | Oberliga - Hessen |
Last archived meeting: Vfb Marburg vs Kassel on Feb 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Vfb Marburg score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Kassel score 2.5 and concede 2.8. The model gives a 76% probability of over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vfb Marburg | 1.5 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Kassel | 2.5 | 2.8 | 0 | 13/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vfb Marburg sit 5th in Oberliga - Hessen (11 points from 5 matches) and Kassel sit 13th (4 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Vfb Marburg | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| 13 | Kassel | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vfb Marburg vs Kassel?
- The Footlab model makes Vfb Marburg the favourite at 45%, against 21% for a draw and 34% for Kassel.
- Where and when is Vfb Marburg vs Kassel played?
- Vfb Marburg vs Kassel is played on October 3, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion an der Gisselberger Straße, in the Oberliga - Hessen.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 76% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.