Where and when is Vihren vs Nesebar played?

Vihren vs Nesebar is played on September 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Spartak, in the Second League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Vihren vs Nesebar: prediction and stats

Second LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Spartak, Sandanski

Vihren

Nesebar

The Footlab model makes Vihren the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Nesebar. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Vihren vs Nesebar?

A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate Vihren (1,715) and Nesebar (1,708).

Vihren win45 %

Draw28 %

Nesebar win27 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vihren have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Nesebar have 12, 0 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Vihren
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 18, 2026	Ludogorets II(away)	2-0	Second League
Aug 9, 2026	Chernomorets 1919 Burgas(home)	1-1	Second League
Aug 2, 2026	Hebar 1918(away)	3-2	Second League
Jul 28, 2026	CSKA Sofia II(home)	1-1	Second League
Jul 4, 2026	Rilski Sportist(away)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs

Nesebar
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Pirin Blagoevgrad(home)	7-0	Second League
Aug 16, 2026	Sportist Svoge(away)	1-0	Second League
Aug 10, 2026	Dobrudzha(home)	2-0	Second League
Aug 4, 2026	Montana(away)	1-3	Second League
Jul 25, 2026	Etar Veliko Tarnovo(home)	1-5	Second League

How many goals should we expect?

Vihren score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Nesebar score 3.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Vihren	1.5	1.0	4	6/15	6/15
Nesebar	3.7	1.1	7	7/15	11/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Vihren sit 6th in Second League (8 points from 4 matches) and Nesebar sit 3rd (9 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
3	Nesebar	5	3	0	2	12	8	9
6	Vihren	4	2	2	0	7	4	8

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Vihren vs Nesebar?: The Footlab model makes Vihren the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Nesebar.
Where and when is Vihren vs Nesebar played?: Vihren vs Nesebar is played on September 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Spartak, in the Second League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.