Vila Nova vs Novorizontino: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 34Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga, Goiânia, Goiás
The Footlab model makes Vila Nova the favourite at 35%, against 31% for a draw and 34% for Novorizontino. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vila Nova vs Novorizontino?
A very open match: only 70 Elo points separate Vila Nova (1,873) and Novorizontino (1,943).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vila Nova have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Novorizontino have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Operario-PR(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Ponte Preta(home) | 6-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atletico Goianiense(away) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sport Recife(home) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 27, 2026 | CRB(away) | 0-2 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | America Mineiro(home) | 3-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | CRB(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Juventude(home) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Londrina(away) | 4-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Criciuma(home) | 0-1 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Vila Nova win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Novorizontino win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2026 | Novorizontino 2-1 Vila Nova | Serie B |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Novorizontino 1-1 Vila Nova | Serie B |
| May 30, 2025 | Vila Nova 0-1 Novorizontino | Serie B |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Novorizontino 2-0 Vila Nova | Serie B |
| May 14, 2024 | Vila Nova 2-1 Novorizontino | Serie B |
| Jul 30, 2023 | Novorizontino 3-1 Vila Nova | Serie B |
Last archived meeting: Novorizontino vs Vila Nova on Jun 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Vila Nova score 1.4 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Novorizontino score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vila Nova | 1.4 | 1.0 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Novorizontino | 1.7 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vila Nova sit 3rd in Serie B (41 points from 24 matches) and Novorizontino sit 5th (37 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Vila Nova | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 35 | 25 | 41 |
| 5 | Novorizontino | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 35 | 20 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vila Nova vs Novorizontino?
- The Footlab model makes Vila Nova the favourite at 35%, against 31% for a draw and 34% for Novorizontino.
- Where and when is Vila Nova vs Novorizontino played?
- Vila Nova vs Novorizontino is played on October 17, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.