Virtus Francavilla vs Nocerina: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone HGroup H - 30Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Giovanni Paolo II, Francavilla Fontana
The Footlab AI model makes Virtus Francavilla the favourite at 46%, against 29% for a draw and 25% for Nocerina. The most likely score is 1-1. If Virtus Francavilla wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 3,172 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Virtus Francavilla vs Nocerina?
A very open match: only 15 Elo points separate Virtus Francavilla (1,778) and Nocerina (1,763).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Virtus Francavilla vs Nocerina
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Virtus Francavilla
Not enough data to predict the Virtus Francavilla lineup.
Nocerina
Not enough data to predict the Nocerina lineup.
Computed on October 24, 2026 at 03:04 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Virtus Francavilla have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Nocerina have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Fidelis Andria(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Real Forio 2014(home) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Gravina(home) | 3-0 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Gravina(away) | 2-4 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Gladiator(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Martina Franca(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Brindisi(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Turris(home) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Melfi(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Sep 27, 2026 | USD Palmese(home) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Virtus Francavilla wins, 0 draws, 2 Nocerina wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2025 | Virtus Francavilla 1-3 Nocerina | Serie D - Girone H |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Nocerina 2-0 Virtus Francavilla | Serie D - Girone H |
Last archived meeting: Virtus Francavilla vs Nocerina on Apr 17, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Virtus Francavilla score 1.6 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Nocerina score 0.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virtus Francavilla | 1.6 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Nocerina | 0.9 | 1.0 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Virtus Francavilla sit 1st in Serie D - Girone H (18 points from 8 matches) and Nocerina sit 8th (13 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virtus Francavilla | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 18 |
| 8 | Nocerina | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 13 |
A question about Virtus Francavilla vs Nocerina?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Virtus Francavilla vs Nocerina?
- The Footlab AI model makes Virtus Francavilla the favourite at 46%, against 29% for a draw and 25% for Nocerina.
- Where and when is Virtus Francavilla vs Nocerina played?
- Virtus Francavilla vs Nocerina is played on April 4, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Giovanni Paolo II, in the Serie D - Girone H.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.