Vitesse vs De Graafschap: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 14Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 11:15 AM (UTC)GelreDome, Arnhem
The Footlab model makes Vitesse the favourite at 45%, against 23% for a draw and 32% for De Graafschap. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vitesse vs De Graafschap?
A very open match: only 6 Elo points separate Vitesse (1,721) and De Graafschap (1,716).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vitesse have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; De Graafschap have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Almere City FC(home) | 0-3 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Jong Utrecht(away) | 3-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Waalwijk(home) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Al-Jazira(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | AEK Athens FC(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | VVV Venlo(away) | 1-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Jong AZ(home) | 2-5 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Helmond Sport(away) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Excelsior(home) | 1-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Kifisia(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Vitesse win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 De Graafschap win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | De Graafschap 1-4 Vitesse | Eerste Divisie |
| Dec 4, 2025 | Vitesse 1-2 De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Vitesse 2-0 De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 29, 2024 | De Graafschap 3-1 Vitesse | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 29, 2019 | Vitesse 2-0 De Graafschap | KNVB Beker |
| May 12, 2019 | Vitesse 6-1 De Graafschap | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: De Graafschap vs Vitesse on Mar 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Vitesse score 1.6 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; De Graafschap score 2.1 and concede 2.7. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse | 1.6 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| De Graafschap | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vitesse sit 10th in Eerste Divisie (4 points from 3 matches) and De Graafschap sit 17th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Vitesse | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 10 | Vitesse | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 17 | De Graafschap | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| 17 | De Graafschap | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vitesse vs De Graafschap?
- The Footlab model makes Vitesse the favourite at 45%, against 23% for a draw and 32% for De Graafschap.
- Where and when is Vitesse vs De Graafschap played?
- Vitesse vs De Graafschap is played on November 8, 2026 at 11:15 AM (UTC) at GelreDome, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.