Corinthians vs Vitoria: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 31Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab model makes Corinthians the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Vitoria. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Corinthians vs Vitoria?
A very open match: only 43 Elo points separate Corinthians (1,991) and Vitoria (1,948).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Corinthians have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Vitoria have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Coritiba(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Rosario Central(home) | 1-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cruzeiro(home) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Rosario Central(away) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 9, 2026 | RB Bragantino(away) | 2-0 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Bahia(home) | 0-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Botafogo(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Flamengo(away) | 0-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense(home) | 4-0 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense(away) | 0-2 | Copa Do Brasil |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Corinthians win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Vitoria win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Vitoria 0-0 Corinthians | Serie A |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Vitoria 0-1 Corinthians | Serie A |
| Jun 1, 2025 | Corinthians 0-0 Vitoria | Serie A |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Vitoria 1-2 Corinthians | Serie A |
| Jul 4, 2024 | Corinthians 3-2 Vitoria | Serie A |
| Oct 21, 2018 | Vitoria 2-2 Corinthians | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Vitoria vs Corinthians on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Corinthians score 1.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Vitoria score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corinthians | 1.1 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Vitoria | 1.5 | 1.5 | 5 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Corinthians sit 10th in Serie A (32 points from 24 matches) and Vitoria sit 12th (29 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Corinthians | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 26 | 24 | 32 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 23 | 35 | 29 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Corinthians vs Vitoria?
- The Footlab model makes Corinthians the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Vitoria.
- Where and when is Corinthians vs Vitoria played?
- Corinthians vs Vitoria is played on October 18, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Maracanã, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.