Vitoria vs Fluminense: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 34Kick-off on November 4, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Manoel Barradas, Salvador, Bahia
The Footlab model makes Vitoria the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Fluminense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vitoria vs Fluminense?
A very open match: only 46 Elo points separate Vitoria (1,968) and Fluminense (2,013).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vitoria have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Fluminense have 5, 8 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Bahia(home) | 0-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Botafogo(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Flamengo(away) | 0-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense(home) | 4-0 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense(away) | 0-2 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Remo(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Independ. Rivadavia(away) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Palmeiras(home) | 3-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Independ. Rivadavia(home) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Botafogo(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Vitoria win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Fluminense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Fluminense 2-2 Vitoria | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Vitoria 0-1 Fluminense | Serie A |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Fluminense 1-1 Vitoria | Serie A |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Vitoria 2-1 Fluminense | Serie A |
| Jun 27, 2024 | Fluminense 0-1 Vitoria | Serie A |
| Sep 6, 2018 | Fluminense 0-0 Vitoria | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Vitoria score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Fluminense score 1.2 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria | 1.5 | 1.5 | 5 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Fluminense | 1.2 | 1.0 | 3 | 11/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vitoria sit 12th in Serie A (29 points from 24 matches) and Fluminense sit 4th (41 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fluminense | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 36 | 29 | 41 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 23 | 35 | 29 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vitoria vs Fluminense?
- The Footlab model makes Vitoria the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Fluminense.
- Where and when is Vitoria vs Fluminense played?
- Vitoria vs Fluminense is played on November 4, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Manoel Barradas, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.