Vitoria vs Fluminense: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 34Kick-off on November 4, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Manoel Barradas, Salvador, Bahia
The Footlab AI model makes Fluminense the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Vitoria. The most likely score is 1-1. If Fluminense wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vitoria vs Fluminense?
Fluminense starts as the favourite with a 102-point Elo edge (1,889 vs 1,787).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Vitoria vs Fluminense
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Vitoria
4-2-3-1- 91Rene
- 33Erick
- 95Caíque
- 10Matheuzinho
- 6E. Martínez
- 12D. Tarzia
- 36Luan Cândido
- 83Jamerson
- 98Mateusinho
- 25Cacá
- 1Lucas Arcanjo
Fluminense
4-2-3-1- 7Hulk
- 8Martinelli
- 17A. Canobbio
- 16Nonato
- 32L. Acosta
- 30Y. Soteldo
- 29J. Millán
- 13Guilherme Arana
- 2Samuel Xavier
- 3Thiago Silva
- 1Fábio
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 09:44 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vitoria have 4 wins, 1 draw and 10 defeats; Fluminense have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Sao Paulo(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Chapecoense-sc(home) | 4-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Cruzeiro(home) | 1-3 | Serie A |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Mirassol(away) | 2-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Gremio(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Flamengo(away) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Coritiba(home) | 4-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Corinthians(away) | 3-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Platense(away) | 1-2 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Atletico-MG(away) | 1-3 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Vitoria wins, 3 draws, 1 Fluminense win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Fluminense 2-2 Vitoria | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Vitoria 0-1 Fluminense | Serie A |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Fluminense 1-1 Vitoria | Serie A |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Vitoria 2-1 Fluminense | Serie A |
| Jun 27, 2024 | Fluminense 0-1 Vitoria | Serie A |
| Sep 6, 2018 | Fluminense 0-0 Vitoria | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Vitoria score 1.0 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Fluminense score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria | 1.0 | 1.6 | 4 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Fluminense | 1.5 | 1.2 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vitoria sit 12th in Serie A (36 points from 30 matches) and Fluminense sit 4th (51 points from 30 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 48 | 37 | 51 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 33 | 44 | 36 |
A question about Vitoria vs Fluminense?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vitoria vs Fluminense?
- The Footlab AI model makes Fluminense the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Vitoria.
- Where and when is Vitoria vs Fluminense played?
- Vitoria vs Fluminense is played on November 4, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Manoel Barradas, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.