Volga Ulyanovsk vs Spartak Kostroma: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 12Kick-off on September 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Trud, Ulyanovsk
The Footlab model makes Spartak Kostroma the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Volga Ulyanovsk. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Volga Ulyanovsk vs Spartak Kostroma?
A very open match: only 91 Elo points separate Volga Ulyanovsk (1,751) and Spartak Kostroma (1,842).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Volga Ulyanovsk have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Spartak Kostroma have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Shinnik Yaroslavl(home) | 1-3 | First League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Sochi(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | KAMAZ(away) | 2-1 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Chelyabinsk(home) | 0-2 | First League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | FK Neftekhimik(home) | 2-0 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Torpedo Moskva(away) | 0-3 | First League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | FC UFA(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ska-khabarovsk(away) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Enisey(home) | 2-2 | First League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Tekstilshchik(away) | 0-0 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Volga Ulyanovsk win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Spartak Kostroma win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 28, 2026 | Spartak Kostroma 1-1 Volga Ulyanovsk | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Volga Ulyanovsk 1-0 Spartak Kostroma | First League |
| Sep 29, 2025 | Spartak Kostroma 1-1 Volga Ulyanovsk | First League |
| May 4, 2025 | Spartak Kostroma 1-1 Volga Ulyanovsk | Second League A - Spring Season Gold |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Volga Ulyanovsk 1-2 Spartak Kostroma | Second League A - Spring Season Gold |
| May 11, 2024 | Volga Ulyanovsk 0-1 Spartak Kostroma | Second League A - Spring Season Silver |
Last archived meeting: Spartak Kostroma vs Volga Ulyanovsk on Jun 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Volga Ulyanovsk score 0.8 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Spartak Kostroma score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volga Ulyanovsk | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Spartak Kostroma | 1.2 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Volga Ulyanovsk sit 14th in First League (6 points from 7 matches) and Spartak Kostroma sit 8th (12 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Spartak Kostroma | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 12 |
| 14 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Volga Ulyanovsk vs Spartak Kostroma?
- The Footlab model makes Spartak Kostroma the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Volga Ulyanovsk.
- Where and when is Volga Ulyanovsk vs Spartak Kostroma played?
- Volga Ulyanovsk vs Spartak Kostroma is played on September 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Trud, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.