Volna vs Smorgon: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 31Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadyen Valna, Pinsk
The Footlab model makes Volna the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Smorgon. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Volna vs Smorgon?
A very open match: only 1 Elo points separate Volna (1,432) and Smorgon (1,431).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Volna have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Smorgon have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Slonim(away) | 0-3 | 1. Division |
| Aug 16, 2026 | BATE II(away) | 3-5 | 1. Division |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Uni Minsk(home) | 0-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Molodechno-DYuSSh 4(away) | 2-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Gomel II(away) | 4-1 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ostrovets FC(home) | 0-1 | 1. Division |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Slonim(away) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 10, 2026 | BATE II(home) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Uni Minsk(away) | 0-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Molodechno-DYuSSh 4(away) | 0-3 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Volna win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Smorgon win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 2026 | Smorgon 1-3 Volna | 1. Division |
| Nov 12, 2022 | Smorgon 2-0 Volna | 1. Division |
| Jul 23, 2022 | Volna 1-3 Smorgon | 1. Division |
| Aug 22, 2020 | Volna 2-3 Smorgon | 1. Division |
| Apr 25, 2020 | Smorgon 2-0 Volna | 1. Division |
| Nov 24, 2019 | Smorgon 1-2 Volna | 1. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Volna score 2.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Smorgon score 2.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volna | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
| Smorgon | 2.1 | 1.3 | 7 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Volna sit 8th in 1. Division (31 points from 21 matches) and Smorgon sit 14th (23 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Volna | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 37 | 37 | 31 |
| 8 | Volna | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 19 | 17 |
| 14 | Smorgon | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 24 | 30 | 23 |
| 16 | Smorgon | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Volna vs Smorgon?
- The Footlab model makes Volna the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Smorgon.
- Where and when is Volna vs Smorgon played?
- Volna vs Smorgon is played on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadyen Valna, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.