Wales U21 vs Austria U21: prediction and stats
UEFA U21 Championship - QualificationGroup Stage - 24Kick-off on October 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Principality Stadium, Caerdydd
The Footlab model makes Austria U21 the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Wales U21. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Wales U21 vs Austria U21?
A very open match: only 95 Elo points separate Wales U21 (1,477) and Austria U21 (1,572).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Wales U21 have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Austria U21 have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Denmark U21(away) | 0-4 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Belarus U21(home) | 2-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Belarus U21(away) | 0-3 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Austria U21(away) | 2-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Belgium U21(home) | 0-7 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Belarus U21(home) | 2-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Belgium U21(away) | 0-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Belgium U21(home) | 1-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Wales U21(home) | 0-2 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Denmark U21(away) | 1-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Wales U21 win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Austria U21 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2025 | Austria U21 0-2 Wales U21 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
Last archived meeting: Austria U21 vs Wales U21 on Oct 14, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Wales U21 score 1.3 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; Austria U21 score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wales U21 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 3 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Austria U21 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 4 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Wales U21 sit 4th in UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification (6 points from 6 matches) and Austria U21 sit 2nd (10 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Austria U21 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 10 |
| 4 | Wales U21 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Wales U21 vs Austria U21?
- The Footlab model makes Austria U21 the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Wales U21.
- Where and when is Wales U21 vs Austria U21 played?
- Wales U21 vs Austria U21 is played on October 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Principality Stadium, in the UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.