Where and when is Warta Poznań vs Arka Gdynia played?

Warta Poznań vs Arka Gdynia is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Enea Stadion, in the I Liga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Warta Poznań vs Arka Gdynia: prediction and stats

I LigaRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Enea Stadion, Poznań

Warta Poznań

Arka Gdynia

The Footlab model makes Warta Poznań the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Arka Gdynia. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Warta Poznań vs Arka Gdynia?

A very open match: only 15 Elo points separate Warta Poznań (1,884) and Arka Gdynia (1,900).

Warta Poznań win41 %

Draw26 %

Arka Gdynia win33 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Warta Poznań have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Arka Gdynia have 5, 3 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Warta Poznań
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Chrobry Głogów(away)	1-0	I Liga
Aug 15, 2026	Odra Opole(away)	1-3	I Liga
Aug 9, 2026	Nieciecza(away)	2-1	I Liga
Aug 5, 2026	Resovia Rzeszów(home)	0-1	Cup
Jul 31, 2026	Lechia Gdansk(away)	3-0	I Liga

Arka Gdynia
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Miedz Legnica(away)	0-2	I Liga
Aug 17, 2026	Puszcza Niepołomice(home)	3-0	I Liga
Aug 10, 2026	Unia Skierniewice(away)	0-2	I Liga
Aug 1, 2026	Stal Rzeszów(home)	4-0	I Liga
Jul 24, 2026	Odra Opole(away)	1-0	I Liga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Warta Poznań win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Arka Gdynia win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 8, 2025	Arka Gdynia 3-0 Warta Poznań	I Liga
Jan 25, 2025	Arka Gdynia 1-0 Warta Poznań	Friendlies Clubs
Sep 21, 2024	Warta Poznań 0-1 Arka Gdynia	I Liga
Jan 15, 2022	Warta Poznań 1-0 Arka Gdynia	Friendlies Clubs

Last archived meeting: Arka Gdynia vs Warta Poznań on Apr 8, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Warta Poznań score 1.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Arka Gdynia score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Warta Poznań	1.7	1.6	5	9/15	10/15
Arka Gdynia	1.2	1.5	6	4/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Warta Poznań sit 6th in I Liga (9 points from 5 matches) and Arka Gdynia sit 5th (9 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
5	Arka Gdynia	5	3	0	2	8	4	9
6	Warta Poznań	5	3	0	2	10	8	9

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Warta Poznań vs Arka Gdynia?: The Footlab model makes Warta Poznań the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Arka Gdynia.
Where and when is Warta Poznań vs Arka Gdynia played?: Warta Poznań vs Arka Gdynia is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Enea Stadion, in the I Liga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.