Where and when is Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Arka Gdynia played?

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Arka Gdynia is played on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Znicza (MZOS), in the I Liga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Arka Gdynia: prediction and stats

I LigaRegular Season - 15Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Znicza (MZOS), Pruszków

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Arka Gdynia

The Footlab model makes Arka Gdynia the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Arka Gdynia?

A very open match: only 65 Elo points separate Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (1,835) and Arka Gdynia (1,900).

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win35 %

Draw26 %

Arka Gdynia win39 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Arka Gdynia have 5, 3 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Polonia Bytom(away)	2-2	I Liga
Aug 14, 2026	Stal Rzeszów(home)	1-1	I Liga
Aug 8, 2026	Miedz Legnica(away)	1-0	I Liga
Aug 2, 2026	Puszcza Niepołomice(home)	1-0	I Liga
Jul 25, 2026	Lechia Gdansk(away)	3-0	I Liga

Arka Gdynia
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Miedz Legnica(away)	0-2	I Liga
Aug 17, 2026	Puszcza Niepołomice(home)	3-0	I Liga
Aug 10, 2026	Unia Skierniewice(away)	0-2	I Liga
Aug 1, 2026	Stal Rzeszów(home)	4-0	I Liga
Jul 24, 2026	Odra Opole(away)	1-0	I Liga

How many goals should we expect?

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Arka Gdynia score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	1.1	1.2	6	8/15	7/15
Arka Gdynia	1.2	1.5	6	4/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki sit 1st in I Liga (11 points from 5 matches) and Arka Gdynia sit 5th (9 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	5	3	2	0	8	3	11
5	Arka Gdynia	5	3	0	2	8	4	9

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Arka Gdynia?: The Footlab model makes Arka Gdynia the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki.
Where and when is Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Arka Gdynia played?: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Arka Gdynia is played on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Znicza (MZOS), in the I Liga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.