Swansea vs West Ham: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea
The Footlab model makes West Ham the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Swansea. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Swansea vs West Ham?
West Ham starts as the favourite with a 152-point Elo edge (2,074 vs 1,922).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Swansea have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; West Ham have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sheffield Utd(home) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stoke City(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Leganes(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Merthyr Town(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Portsmouth(home) | 3-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | 1. FC Magdeburg(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Rangers(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Swansea win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 West Ham win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2018 | Swansea 4-1 West Ham | Premier League |
| Sep 30, 2017 | West Ham 1-0 Swansea | Premier League |
| Apr 8, 2017 | West Ham 1-0 Swansea | Premier League |
| Dec 26, 2016 | Swansea 1-4 West Ham | Premier League |
| May 7, 2016 | West Ham 1-4 Swansea | Premier League |
| Dec 20, 2015 | Swansea 0-0 West Ham | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Swansea score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; West Ham score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| West Ham | 1.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Swansea sit 9th in Championship (4 points from 2 matches) and West Ham sit 17th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Swansea | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 17 | West Ham | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Swansea vs West Ham?
- The Footlab model makes West Ham the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Swansea.
- Where and when is Swansea vs West Ham played?
- Swansea vs West Ham is played on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Swansea.com Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.