Weiche Flensburg vs Phönix Lübeck: prediction and stats
Regionalliga - NordNorth - 10Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Manfred-Werner-Stadion, Flensburg
The Footlab model makes Weiche Flensburg the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 31% for Phönix Lübeck. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Weiche Flensburg vs Phönix Lübeck?
A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate Weiche Flensburg (1,952) and Phönix Lübeck (1,957).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Weiche Flensburg have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Phönix Lübeck have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Eintracht Norderstedt(away) | 4-1 | Regionalliga - Nord |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Werder Bremen II(away) | 2-1 | Regionalliga - Nord |
| Aug 15, 2026 | SSV Jeddeloh(home) | 5-2 | Regionalliga - Nord |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Eimsbütteler TV(home) | 5-2 | Regionalliga - Nord |
| Aug 1, 2026 | VfB Lübeck(away) | 1-1 | Regionalliga - Nord |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | SC Paderborn 07(home) | 2-4 | DFB Pokal |
| Aug 15, 2026 | VfB Lübeck(home) | 4-0 | Regionalliga - Nord |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Bremer SV(away) | 0-0 | Regionalliga - Nord |
| Aug 9, 2026 | SSV Jeddeloh(home) | 2-0 | Regionalliga - Nord |
| Jul 31, 2026 | SV Drochtersen/Assel(away) | 1-2 | Regionalliga - Nord |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Weiche Flensburg win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Phönix Lübeck win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | Phönix Lübeck 0-0 Weiche Flensburg | Regionalliga - Nord |
| Jul 26, 2025 | Weiche Flensburg 2-5 Phönix Lübeck | Regionalliga - Nord |
| Mar 14, 2025 | Weiche Flensburg 0-0 Phönix Lübeck | Regionalliga - Nord |
| Sep 13, 2024 | Phönix Lübeck 2-1 Weiche Flensburg | Regionalliga - Nord |
| Apr 6, 2024 | Phönix Lübeck 6-0 Weiche Flensburg | Regionalliga - Nord |
| Oct 6, 2023 | Weiche Flensburg 0-5 Phönix Lübeck | Regionalliga - Nord |
Last archived meeting: Phönix Lübeck vs Weiche Flensburg on Nov 8, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Weiche Flensburg score 2.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Phönix Lübeck score 1.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weiche Flensburg | 2.3 | 1.3 | 3 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Phönix Lübeck | 1.8 | 1.5 | 5 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Weiche Flensburg sit 1st in Regionalliga - Nord (13 points from 5 matches) and Phönix Lübeck sit 5th (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weiche Flensburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | Phönix Lübeck | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Weiche Flensburg vs Phönix Lübeck?
- The Footlab model makes Weiche Flensburg the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 31% for Phönix Lübeck.
- Where and when is Weiche Flensburg vs Phönix Lübeck played?
- Weiche Flensburg vs Phönix Lübeck is played on September 19, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Manfred-Werner-Stadion, in the Regionalliga - Nord.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 19, 2026SV Drochtersen/AsselvsSt. Pauli II
- Sep 19, 2026VfB LübeckvsBremer SV
- Sep 19, 2026Eintracht NorderstedtvsWerder Bremen II
- Sep 19, 2026Atlas DelmenhorstvsEimsbütteler TV
- Sep 19, 2026HSC HannovervsHamburger SV II
- Sep 19, 2026Hannover 96 IIvsTodesfelde
- Sep 19, 2026VfB OldenburgvsSSV Jeddeloh
- Sep 19, 2026Kickers EmdenvsSchöningen