Watford vs Swansea: prediction and stats
ChampionshipMatchday 44Kick-off on April 21, 2027 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Vicarage Road, Watford
The Footlab AI model makes Swansea the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Watford. The most likely score is 1-1. If Swansea wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,522 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 12, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Watford vs Swansea?
Swansea starts as the favourite with a 270-point Elo edge (1,962 vs 1,692).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Watford vs Swansea
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Watford
5-3-2- 10M. Boadu
- 20M. Doumbia
- 39E. Kayembe
- 17Iker Bravo
- 5H. Kyprianou
- 6M. Pollock
- 4K. Keben
- 15K. Diatta
- 29Branimir Mlačić
- 33J. Zemura
- 1F. Ravaglia
Swansea
4-3-3- 30Joseph Okopu
- 7M. Widell
- 49M. Yeo
- 4J. Fulton
- 6M. Stamenić
- 17Gonçalo Franco
- 14J. Tymon
- 26F. Lissah
- 5B. Cabango
- 23S. Welsh
- 22L. Vigouroux
Computed on November 12, 2026 at 11:38 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Watford have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Swansea have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Middlesbrough(home) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Nov 3, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 2-3 | Championship |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Wolves(away) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Birmingham(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Nov 3, 2026 | Portsmouth(away) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Blackburn(home) | 4-0 | Championship |
| Oct 24, 2026 | QPR(away) | 0-5 | Championship |
| Oct 17, 2026 | West Ham(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Watford win, 2 draws, 3 Swansea wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 2026 | Swansea 2-0 Watford | Championship |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Watford 0-2 Swansea | Championship |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Swansea 1-1 Watford | Championship |
| Mar 12, 2025 | Watford 1-0 Swansea | Championship |
| Nov 5, 2024 | Swansea 1-0 Watford | Championship |
| Mar 6, 2024 | Watford 1-1 Swansea | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Watford score 0.8 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Swansea score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford | 0.8 | 1.8 | 3 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Swansea | 1.5 | 1.2 | 6 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Watford sit 20th in Championship (15 points from 15 matches) and Swansea sit 6th (26 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 18 | 26 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 23 | 15 |
A question about Watford vs Swansea?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Watford vs Swansea?
- The Footlab AI model makes Swansea the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Watford.
- Where and when is Watford vs Swansea played?
- Watford vs Swansea is played on April 21, 2027 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Vicarage Road, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.