Workington vs Ashton United: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - NorthernRegular Season - 18Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Borough Park, Workington, Cumbria
The Footlab model makes Workington the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Ashton United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Workington vs Ashton United?
A very open match: only 60 Elo points separate Workington (1,689) and Ashton United (1,748).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Workington have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Ashton United have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | United of Manchester(away) | 2-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Avro(away) | 1-4 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Guiseley AFC(home) | 2-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Redcar Athletic(home) | 0-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gainsborough Trinity(away) | 0-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | AFC Emley(away) | 1-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Whitby Town(home) | 2-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bamber Bridge(away) | 0-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Stockton Town(away) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lancaster City(home) | 4-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Workington win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Ashton United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Ashton United 2-1 Workington | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Workington 1-1 Ashton United | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Workington 5-1 Ashton United | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Ashton United 3-0 Workington | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Dec 16, 2023 | Ashton United 2-2 Workington | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 12, 2023 | Workington 5-0 Ashton United | Non League Premier - Northern |
Last archived meeting: Ashton United vs Workington on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Workington score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Ashton United score 1.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Workington | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Ashton United | 1.4 | 1.1 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Workington sit 19th in Non League Premier - Northern (4 points from 5 matches) and Ashton United sit 5th (10 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ashton United | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 10 |
| 19 | Workington | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Workington vs Ashton United?
- The Footlab model makes Workington the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Ashton United.
- Where and when is Workington vs Ashton United played?
- Workington vs Ashton United is played on November 7, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Borough Park, in the Non League Premier - Northern.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.