Xelajú vs Guastatoya: prediction and stats
Liga NacionalRegular Season - 20Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Mario Camposeco, Quetzaltenango
The Footlab model makes Xelajú the favourite at 61%, against 24% for a draw and 15% for Guastatoya. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Xelajú vs Guastatoya?
A very open match: only 46 Elo points separate Xelajú (1,701) and Guastatoya (1,655).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Xelajú have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Guastatoya have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Municipal(away) | 0-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Diriangén(home) | 2-0 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Plaza Amador(away) | 2-5 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Malacateco(away) | 2-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Aurora(home) | 3-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Mixco(away) | 2-4 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Municipal(home) | 1-0 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Antigua GFC(away) | 0-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Malacateco(home) | 4-0 | Liga Nacional |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Aurora(away) | 1-0 | Liga Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Xelajú win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Guastatoya win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | Xelajú 1-1 Guastatoya | Liga Nacional |
| Feb 8, 2026 | Guastatoya 1-0 Xelajú | Liga Nacional |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Guastatoya 1-2 Xelajú | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 18, 2025 | Xelajú 5-0 Guastatoya | Liga Nacional |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Guastatoya 2-2 Xelajú | Liga Nacional |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Xelajú 1-0 Guastatoya | Liga Nacional |
How many goals should we expect?
Xelajú score 1.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Guastatoya score 1.4 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xelajú | 1.5 | 1.6 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Guastatoya | 1.4 | 1.0 | 5 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Xelajú sit 1st in Liga Nacional (39 points from 22 matches) and Guastatoya sit 7th (31 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Xelajú | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 34 | 19 | 39 |
| 7 | Guastatoya | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 29 | 21 | 31 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Xelajú vs Guastatoya?
- The Footlab model makes Xelajú the favourite at 61%, against 24% for a draw and 15% for Guastatoya.
- Where and when is Xelajú vs Guastatoya played?
- Xelajú vs Guastatoya is played on November 8, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Mario Camposeco, in the Liga Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.