York vs Accrington ST: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 20, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)LNER Community Stadium, York, North Yorkshire
The Footlab AI model makes York the favourite at 67%, against 21% for a draw and 12% for Accrington ST. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win York vs Accrington ST?
York starts as the favourite with a 232-point Elo edge (2,006 vs 1,774).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for York vs Accrington ST
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
York
3-4-2-1- 10O. Pearce
- 28O. Banks
- 8A. Hunt
- 7J. Grey
- 12H. Boyes
- 30A. Newby
- 23J. Felix
- 3M. Kitching
- 2R. Fallowfield
- 5Z. Johnson
- 1Alfie Shane McNally
Accrington ST
3-4-1-2- 39J. Woods
- 23T. Walton
- 38C. O'Brien
- 33D. Tutonda
- 2D. Love
- 14Stefan Mols
- 10Alex Henderson
- 17D. Matthews
- 28S. Conneely
- 25J. Smith
- 1L. Moulden
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:43 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, York have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Accrington ST have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | Gillingham(home) | 3-0 | League Two |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Rotherham(home) | 1-1 | EFL Trophy |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Chesterfield(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Newcastle United U21(home) | 1-3 | EFL Trophy |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Swindon Town(home) | 4-0 | League Two |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Salford City(home) | 1-1 | EFL Trophy |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Cheltenham(home) | 2-0 | League Two |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Swindon Town(away) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sunderland U21(home) | 3-3 | EFL Trophy |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Newport County(home) | 0-0 | League Two |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 York win, 1 draw, 4 Accrington ST wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2023 | Accrington ST 2-0 York | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 23, 2016 | Accrington ST 3-0 York | League Two |
| Nov 28, 2015 | York 1-5 Accrington ST | League Two |
| Nov 7, 2015 | Accrington ST 3-2 York | FA Cup |
| Mar 21, 2015 | Accrington ST 2-2 York | League Two |
| Dec 26, 2014 | York 1-0 Accrington ST | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Accrington ST vs York on Jul 29, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
York score 1.6 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Accrington ST score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| York | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Accrington ST | 1.5 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
York sit 6th in League Two (14 points from 8 matches) and Accrington ST sit 16th (10 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | York | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 10 | 14 |
| 16 | Accrington ST | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 14 | 10 |
A question about York vs Accrington ST?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for York vs Accrington ST?
- The Footlab AI model makes York the favourite at 67%, against 21% for a draw and 12% for Accrington ST.
- Where and when is York vs Accrington ST played?
- York vs Accrington ST is played on October 20, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at LNER Community Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.