York vs Cheltenham: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 30Kick-off on February 9, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC)LNER Community Stadium, York, North Yorkshire
The Footlab model makes York the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Cheltenham. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win York vs Cheltenham?
York is a heavy favourite: 1,983 Elo points against 1,675 — a 308-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, York have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Cheltenham have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rotherham(away) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bristol Rovers(home) | 3-2 | League Two |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Peterborough(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Al-Ettifaq(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Swindon Town(away) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rotherham(home) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 1-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Milton Keynes Dons(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Evesham United(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 York win(s), 4 draw(s), 0 Cheltenham win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2015 | York 1-0 Cheltenham | League Two |
| Nov 1, 2014 | Cheltenham 0-1 York | League Two |
| Feb 8, 2014 | York 0-0 Cheltenham | League Two |
| Nov 2, 2013 | Cheltenham 2-2 York | League Two |
| Jan 12, 2013 | Cheltenham 1-1 York | League Two |
| Sep 22, 2012 | York 0-0 Cheltenham | League Two |
How many goals should we expect?
York score 1.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Cheltenham score 1.3 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| York | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Cheltenham | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
York sit 6th in League Two (4 points from 2 matches) and Cheltenham sit 14th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | York | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 14 | Cheltenham | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for York vs Cheltenham?
- The Footlab model makes York the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Cheltenham.
- Where and when is York vs Cheltenham played?
- York vs Cheltenham is played on February 9, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at LNER Community Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.