York vs Northampton: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)LNER Community Stadium, York, North Yorkshire
The Footlab model makes York the favourite at 66%, against 21% for a draw and 13% for Northampton. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win York vs Northampton?
York is a heavy favourite: 1,979 Elo points against 1,656 — a 322-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, York have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Northampton have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rotherham(away) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bristol Rovers(home) | 3-2 | League Two |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Peterborough(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Al-Ettifaq(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Brighton U21(home) | 0-3 | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Swindon Town(home) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leicester(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Solihull Moors(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 York win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Northampton win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2016 | York 1-2 Northampton | League Two |
| Feb 6, 2016 | Northampton 2-0 York | League Two |
| Feb 21, 2015 | Northampton 3-0 York | League Two |
| Aug 16, 2014 | York 1-1 Northampton | League Two |
| Jan 11, 2014 | Northampton 0-2 York | League Two |
| Aug 3, 2013 | York 1-0 Northampton | League Two |
How many goals should we expect?
York score 1.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Northampton score 0.9 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| York | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Northampton | 0.9 | 1.9 | 3 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
York sit 6th in League Two (4 points from 2 matches) and Northampton sit 18th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | York | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 18 | Northampton | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for York vs Northampton?
- The Footlab model makes York the favourite at 66%, against 21% for a draw and 13% for Northampton.
- Where and when is York vs Northampton played?
- York vs Northampton is played on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at LNER Community Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.