York vs Northampton: prediction and stats
FA Cup1/128-finalsKick-off on November 7, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)LNER Community Stadium, York, North Yorkshire
The Footlab AI model makes York the favourite at 63%, against 20% for a draw and 17% for Northampton. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,449 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win York vs Northampton?
York starts as the favourite with a 218-point Elo edge (1,872 vs 1,654).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for York vs Northampton
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
York
3-4-2-1- 10O. Pearce
- 8A. Hunt
- 12H. Boyes
- 7J. Grey
- 28O. Banks
- 32J. Hunt
- 16A. Read
- 3M. Kitching
- 5Z. Johnson
- 2R. Fallowfield
- 1Alfie Shane McNally
Northampton
4-4-2- 19O. Dale
- 9Matthew Warhurst
- 16J. Wormleighton
- 24C. Lemonheigh-Evans
- 8L. Evans
- 4J. O'Brien-Whitmarsh
- 6E. Moore
- 5J. Guthrie
- 44J. Donacien
- 22Joshua Alan Powell
- 1Z. Jeacock
Computed on November 4, 2026 at 09:28 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, York have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Northampton have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Grimsby(away) | 2-5 | League Two |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Barnet(away) | 1-3 | League Two |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Port Vale(home) | 2-0 | League Two |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Accrington ST(home) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Newport County(away) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | Oldham(home) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Accrington ST(away) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Colchester(home) | 2-0 | League Two |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Tranmere(home) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Grimsby(away) | 2-0 | League Two |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 York win, 2 draws, 3 Northampton wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | York 1-1 Northampton | League Two |
| Feb 23, 2016 | York 1-2 Northampton | League Two |
| Feb 6, 2016 | Northampton 2-0 York | League Two |
| Feb 21, 2015 | Northampton 3-0 York | League Two |
| Aug 16, 2014 | York 1-1 Northampton | League Two |
| Jan 11, 2014 | Northampton 0-2 York | League Two |
How many goals should we expect?
York score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Northampton score 0.7 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| York | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 7/15 |
| Northampton | 0.7 | 1.0 | 4 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about York vs Northampton?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for York vs Northampton?
- The Footlab AI model makes York the favourite at 63%, against 20% for a draw and 17% for Northampton.
- Where and when is York vs Northampton played?
- York vs Northampton is played on November 7, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at LNER Community Stadium, in the FA Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.