York vs Tranmere: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 40Kick-off on April 10, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)LNER Community Stadium, York, North Yorkshire
The Footlab model makes York the favourite at 65%, against 22% for a draw and 13% for Tranmere. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win York vs Tranmere?
York is a heavy favourite: 1,983 Elo points against 1,640 — a 343-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, York have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Tranmere have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rotherham(away) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bristol Rovers(home) | 3-2 | League Two |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Peterborough(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Al-Ettifaq(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Port Vale(away) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Shrewsbury(home) | 2-0 | League Two |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Rochdale(home) | 2-2 | League Cup |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Blackpool(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 2, 2026 | Grimsby(home) | 1-1 | League Two |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 York win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Tranmere win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2016 | Tranmere 1-0 York | National League |
| Sep 13, 2016 | York 0-0 Tranmere | National League |
| Feb 14, 2015 | York 2-0 Tranmere | League Two |
| Aug 9, 2014 | Tranmere 1-1 York | League Two |
How many goals should we expect?
York score 1.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Tranmere score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| York | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Tranmere | 0.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
York sit 6th in League Two (4 points from 2 matches) and Tranmere sit 4th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tranmere | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | York | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for York vs Tranmere?
- The Footlab model makes York the favourite at 65%, against 22% for a draw and 13% for Tranmere.
- Where and when is York vs Tranmere played?
- York vs Tranmere is played on April 10, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at LNER Community Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.