Northampton vs York: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 41Kick-off on April 13, 2027 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Sixfields Stadium, Northampton, East Midlands
The Footlab model makes York the favourite at 57%, against 25% for a draw and 18% for Northampton. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Northampton vs York?
York is a heavy favourite: 1,983 Elo points against 1,662 — a 321-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Northampton have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; York have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Brighton U21(home) | 0-3 | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Swindon Town(home) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leicester(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Solihull Moors(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rotherham(away) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bristol Rovers(home) | 3-2 | League Two |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Peterborough(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Al-Ettifaq(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Northampton win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 York win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2016 | York 1-2 Northampton | League Two |
| Feb 6, 2016 | Northampton 2-0 York | League Two |
| Feb 21, 2015 | Northampton 3-0 York | League Two |
| Aug 16, 2014 | York 1-1 Northampton | League Two |
| Jan 11, 2014 | Northampton 0-2 York | League Two |
| Aug 3, 2013 | York 1-0 Northampton | League Two |
How many goals should we expect?
Northampton score 0.9 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; York score 1.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northampton | 0.9 | 1.9 | 3 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| York | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Northampton sit 18th in League Two (1 points from 2 matches) and York sit 6th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | York | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 18 | Northampton | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Northampton vs York?
- The Footlab model makes York the favourite at 57%, against 25% for a draw and 18% for Northampton.
- Where and when is Northampton vs York played?
- Northampton vs York is played on April 13, 2027 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Sixfields Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.