Aberystwyth Town vs Cardiff Draconians: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 30Kick-off on April 17, 2027 at 11:30 AM (UTC)Park Avenue, Aberystwyth, Ceredigion
The Footlab model makes Aberystwyth Town the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for Cardiff Draconians. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aberystwyth Town vs Cardiff Draconians?
A very open match: only 31 Elo points separate Aberystwyth Town (1,577) and Cardiff Draconians (1,547).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aberystwyth Town have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Cardiff Draconians have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Llantwit Major(home) | 5-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Afan Lido(away) | 5-2 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions(away) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Cwmbran Celtic(away) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 4-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 1-4 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(away) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions(away) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 4-1 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Aberystwyth Town win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Cardiff Draconians win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town 3-2 Cardiff Draconians | FAW Championship |
| Sep 6, 2025 | Cardiff Draconians 3-1 Aberystwyth Town | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Aberystwyth Town vs Cardiff Draconians on Jan 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aberystwyth Town score 1.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Cardiff Draconians score 1.7 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberystwyth Town | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Cardiff Draconians | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aberystwyth Town sit 6th in FAW Championship (6 points from 3 matches) and Cardiff Draconians sit 10th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 |
| 10 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aberystwyth Town vs Cardiff Draconians?
- The Footlab model makes Aberystwyth Town the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for Cardiff Draconians.
- Where and when is Aberystwyth Town vs Cardiff Draconians played?
- Aberystwyth Town vs Cardiff Draconians is played on April 17, 2027 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at Park Avenue, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 17, 2027llanelli AFCvsYnyshir Albions
- Apr 17, 2027Pontypridd TownvsSwansea University
- Apr 17, 2027Llantwit MajorvsCarmarthen Town
- Apr 17, 2027Caerphilly AthleticvsAfan Lido
- Apr 17, 2027Treowen StarsvsPontardawe Town
- Apr 17, 2027Baglan DragonsvsTrethomas Bluebirds
- Apr 17, 2027Newport CityvsCaerau (Ely)