Baglan Dragons vs Trethomas Bluebirds: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 30Kick-off on April 17, 2027 at 11:30 AM (UTC)Evans Bevans Playing Fields Q, Port Talbot
The Footlab AI model makes Trethomas Bluebirds the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Baglan Dragons. The most likely score is 1-1. If Trethomas Bluebirds wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,990 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 22, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Baglan Dragons vs Trethomas Bluebirds?
A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate Baglan Dragons (1,560) and Trethomas Bluebirds (1,590).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Baglan Dragons vs Trethomas Bluebirds
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Baglan Dragons
Not enough data to predict the Baglan Dragons lineup.
Trethomas Bluebirds
Not enough data to predict the Trethomas Bluebirds lineup.
Computed on October 22, 2026 at 04:41 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Baglan Dragons have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Trethomas Bluebirds have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Llantwit Fardre(away) | 3-1 | Welsh Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | llanelli AFC(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Cambrian & Clydach(away) | 0-5 | Welsh Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Treowen Stars(away) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Pontardawe Town(home) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions(away) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(home) | 2-2 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Baglan Dragons wins, 2 draws, 2 Trethomas Bluebirds wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds 0-0 Baglan Dragons | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Baglan Dragons 1-1 Trethomas Bluebirds | FAW Championship |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Trethomas Bluebirds 2-1 Baglan Dragons | FAW Championship |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Baglan Dragons 2-0 Trethomas Bluebirds | FAW Championship |
| Nov 22, 2024 | Trethomas Bluebirds 0-1 Baglan Dragons | FAW Championship |
| Aug 2, 2024 | Trethomas Bluebirds 3-1 Baglan Dragons | League Cup |
Last archived meeting: Trethomas Bluebirds vs Baglan Dragons on Jul 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Baglan Dragons score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Trethomas Bluebirds score 1.9 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baglan Dragons | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Trethomas Bluebirds | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1 | 13/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Baglan Dragons sit 5th in FAW Championship (17 points from 11 matches) and Trethomas Bluebirds sit 8th (13 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 17 |
| 8 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 18 | 13 |
A question about Baglan Dragons vs Trethomas Bluebirds?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Baglan Dragons vs Trethomas Bluebirds?
- The Footlab AI model makes Trethomas Bluebirds the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Baglan Dragons.
- Where and when is Baglan Dragons vs Trethomas Bluebirds played?
- Baglan Dragons vs Trethomas Bluebirds is played on April 17, 2027 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at Evans Bevans Playing Fields Q, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 17, 2027Aberystwyth TownvsCardiff Draconians
- Apr 17, 2027llanelli AFCvsYnyshir Albions
- Apr 17, 2027Pontypridd TownvsSwansea University
- Apr 17, 2027Llantwit MajorvsCarmarthen Town
- Apr 17, 2027Caerphilly AthleticvsAfan Lido
- Apr 17, 2027Treowen StarsvsPontardawe Town
- Apr 17, 2027Newport CityvsCaerau (Ely)