Where and when is Newport City vs Caerau (Ely) played?

Newport City vs Caerau (Ely) is played on April 17, 2027 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at Newport Stadium, in the FAW Championship.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Newport City vs Caerau (Ely): prediction and stats

FAW ChampionshipSouth - 30Kick-off on April 17, 2027 at 11:30 AM (UTC)Newport Stadium, Casnewydd

Newport City

Caerau (Ely)

The Footlab model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 50%, against 22% for a draw and 28% for Newport City. The most likely score is 1-2.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Newport City vs Caerau (Ely)?

A very open match: only 98 Elo points separate Newport City (1,557) and Caerau (Ely) (1,654).

Newport City win28 %

Draw22 %

Caerau (Ely) win50 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newport City have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Caerau (Ely) have 6, 5 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Newport City
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Baglan Dragons(home)	0-1	FAW Championship
Aug 15, 2026	Pontardawe Town(away)	4-0	FAW Championship
Aug 8, 2026	Carmarthen Town(home)	1-2	FAW Championship
Jul 31, 2026	llanelli AFC(away)	4-1	FAW Championship
Jul 8, 2026	Newport County(home)	0-5	Friendlies Clubs

Caerau (Ely)
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Swansea University(home)	1-5	FAW Championship
Aug 14, 2026	Trethomas Bluebirds(away)	4-2	FAW Championship
Aug 7, 2026	Ynyshir Albions(home)	1-1	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Carmarthen Town(away)	3-4	FAW Championship
Jul 25, 2026	Barnstaple Town(home)	4-4	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Newport City win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Caerau (Ely) win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jan 9, 2026	Newport City 1-1 Caerau (Ely)	FAW Championship
Oct 21, 2025	Caerau (Ely) 4-3 Newport City	FAW Championship
Dec 20, 2024	Newport City 3-1 Caerau (Ely)	FAW Championship
Aug 16, 2024	Caerau (Ely) 1-2 Newport City	FAW Championship

Last archived meeting: Newport City vs Caerau (Ely) on Jan 9, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Newport City score 1.3 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Newport City	1.3	2.2	3	6/15	11/15
Caerau (Ely)	2.1	1.5	6	8/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Newport City sit 7th in FAW Championship (6 points from 4 matches) and Caerau (Ely) sit 11th (4 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
7	Newport City	4	2	0	2	9	4	6
11	Caerau (Ely)	4	1	1	2	9	12	4

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Newport City vs Caerau (Ely)?: The Footlab model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 50%, against 22% for a draw and 28% for Newport City.
Where and when is Newport City vs Caerau (Ely) played?: Newport City vs Caerau (Ely) is played on April 17, 2027 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at Newport Stadium, in the FAW Championship.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.