Newport City vs Caerau (Ely): prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 30Kick-off on April 17, 2027 at 11:30 AM (UTC)Newport Stadium, Casnewydd
The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 56%, against 21% for a draw and 23% for Newport City. The most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,457 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newport City vs Caerau (Ely)?
Caerau (Ely) starts as the favourite with a 146-point Elo edge (1,739 vs 1,593).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Newport City vs Caerau (Ely)
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Newport City
Not enough data to predict the Newport City lineup.
Caerau (Ely)
Not enough data to predict the Caerau (Ely) lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 12:17 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newport City have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; Caerau (Ely) have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(away) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Afan Lido(away) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions(home) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(home) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 2-0 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 11, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Newport City wins, 1 draw, 1 Caerau (Ely) win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2026 | Newport City 1-1 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
| Oct 21, 2025 | Caerau (Ely) 4-3 Newport City | FAW Championship |
| Dec 20, 2024 | Newport City 3-1 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
| Aug 16, 2024 | Caerau (Ely) 1-2 Newport City | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Newport City vs Caerau (Ely) on Jan 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Newport City score 1.0 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newport City | 1.0 | 2.1 | 3 | 5/15 | 9/15 |
| Caerau (Ely) | 2.1 | 1.8 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newport City sit 14th in FAW Championship (8 points from 8 matches) and Caerau (Ely) sit 4th (19 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 18 | 19 |
| 14 | Newport City | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 9 | 8 |
A question about Newport City vs Caerau (Ely)?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newport City vs Caerau (Ely)?
- The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 56%, against 21% for a draw and 23% for Newport City.
- Where and when is Newport City vs Caerau (Ely) played?
- Newport City vs Caerau (Ely) is played on April 17, 2027 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at Newport Stadium, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 17, 2027Aberystwyth TownvsCardiff Draconians
- Apr 17, 2027llanelli AFCvsYnyshir Albions
- Apr 17, 2027Pontypridd TownvsSwansea University
- Apr 17, 2027Llantwit MajorvsCarmarthen Town
- Apr 17, 2027Caerphilly AthleticvsAfan Lido
- Apr 17, 2027Treowen StarsvsPontardawe Town
- Apr 17, 2027Baglan DragonsvsTrethomas Bluebirds