Afan Lido vs Caerau (Ely): prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 16Kick-off on November 27, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC)Princess Margaret Way, Port Talbot / Porth Talbot, Neath Port Talbot
The Footlab model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 55%, against 20% for a draw and 25% for Afan Lido. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Afan Lido vs Caerau (Ely)?
Caerau (Ely) starts as the favourite with a 158-point Elo edge (1,654 vs 1,496).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Afan Lido have 8 wins, 0 draws and 7 defeats; Caerau (Ely) have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Pontardawe Town(home) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(away) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Llantwit Major(home) | 5-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(home) | 2-5 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 1-4 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Swansea University(home) | 1-5 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(away) | 4-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(away) | 3-4 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Barnstaple Town(home) | 4-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Afan Lido win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Caerau (Ely) win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | Caerau (Ely) 4-1 Afan Lido | FAW Championship |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Afan Lido 3-2 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
| Nov 22, 2024 | Caerau (Ely) 3-0 Afan Lido | FAW Championship |
| Sep 7, 2024 | Afan Lido 2-2 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
| Apr 1, 2024 | Caerau (Ely) 3-2 Afan Lido | FAW Championship |
| Oct 17, 2023 | Caerau (Ely) 4-1 Afan Lido | Welsh Cup |
Last archived meeting: Caerau (Ely) vs Afan Lido on Mar 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Afan Lido score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 76% probability of over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afan Lido | 1.7 | 1.7 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Caerau (Ely) | 2.1 | 1.5 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Afan Lido sit 8th in FAW Championship (6 points from 4 matches) and Caerau (Ely) sit 11th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Afan Lido | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 6 |
| 11 | Caerau (Ely) | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Afan Lido vs Caerau (Ely)?
- The Footlab model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 55%, against 20% for a draw and 25% for Afan Lido.
- Where and when is Afan Lido vs Caerau (Ely) played?
- Afan Lido vs Caerau (Ely) is played on November 27, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at Princess Margaret Way, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 76% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 27, 2026Newport CityvsPontardawe Town
- Nov 27, 2026Carmarthen TownvsSwansea University
- Nov 27, 2026Caerphilly AthleticvsBaglan Dragons
- Nov 27, 2026llanelli AFCvsCardiff Draconians
- Nov 28, 2026Llantwit MajorvsTreowen Stars
- Nov 28, 2026Trethomas BluebirdsvsYnyshir Albions
- Nov 28, 2026Aberystwyth TownvsPontypridd Town