Afan Lido vs Caerau (Ely): prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 16Kick-off on November 27, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC)Princess Margaret Way, Port Talbot / Porth Talbot, Neath Port Talbot
The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 58%, against 20% for a draw and 22% for Afan Lido. The most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,381 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Afan Lido vs Caerau (Ely)?
Caerau (Ely) starts as the favourite with a 199-point Elo edge (1,742 vs 1,544).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Afan Lido vs Caerau (Ely)
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Afan Lido
Not enough data to predict the Afan Lido lineup.
Caerau (Ely)
Not enough data to predict the Caerau (Ely) lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 04:33 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Afan Lido have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Caerau (Ely) have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Swansea University(home) | 5-5 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(away) | 0-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Newport City(home) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(away) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 2-0 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 11, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Afan Lido win, 1 draw, 4 Caerau (Ely) wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Caerau (Ely) 2-0 Afan Lido | FAW Championship |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Caerau (Ely) 4-1 Afan Lido | FAW Championship |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Afan Lido 3-2 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
| Nov 22, 2024 | Caerau (Ely) 3-0 Afan Lido | FAW Championship |
| Sep 7, 2024 | Afan Lido 2-2 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
| Apr 1, 2024 | Caerau (Ely) 3-2 Afan Lido | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Caerau (Ely) vs Afan Lido on Oct 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Afan Lido score 1.7 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 76% probability of over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afan Lido | 1.7 | 1.8 | 7 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Caerau (Ely) | 2.1 | 1.8 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Afan Lido sit 10th in FAW Championship (12 points from 11 matches) and Caerau (Ely) sit 4th (19 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 18 | 19 |
| 10 | Afan Lido | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 22 | 12 |
A question about Afan Lido vs Caerau (Ely)?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Afan Lido vs Caerau (Ely)?
- The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 58%, against 20% for a draw and 22% for Afan Lido.
- Where and when is Afan Lido vs Caerau (Ely) played?
- Afan Lido vs Caerau (Ely) is played on November 27, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at Princess Margaret Way, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 76% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
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