Afan Lido vs Treowen Stars: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 29Kick-off on April 9, 2027 at 06:30 PM (UTC)Princess Margaret Way, Port Talbot / Porth Talbot, Neath Port Talbot
The Footlab model makes Treowen Stars the favourite at 40%, against 22% for a draw and 38% for Afan Lido. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Afan Lido vs Treowen Stars?
A very open match: only 83 Elo points separate Afan Lido (1,498) and Treowen Stars (1,581).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Afan Lido have 8 wins, 0 draws and 7 defeats; Treowen Stars have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Pontardawe Town(home) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(away) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Llantwit Major(home) | 5-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(home) | 2-5 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 1-4 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(away) | 4-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(home) | 4-1 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Afan Lido win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Treowen Stars win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2026 | Treowen Stars 0-1 Afan Lido | FAW Championship |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Afan Lido 0-4 Treowen Stars | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Treowen Stars vs Afan Lido on Mar 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Afan Lido score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Treowen Stars score 2.0 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 75% probability of over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afan Lido | 1.7 | 1.7 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Treowen Stars | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Afan Lido sit 8th in FAW Championship (6 points from 4 matches) and Treowen Stars sit 3rd (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Treowen Stars | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 9 |
| 8 | Afan Lido | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Afan Lido vs Treowen Stars?
- The Footlab model makes Treowen Stars the favourite at 40%, against 22% for a draw and 38% for Afan Lido.
- Where and when is Afan Lido vs Treowen Stars played?
- Afan Lido vs Treowen Stars is played on April 9, 2027 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at Princess Margaret Way, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 75% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 9, 2027Caerau (Ely)vsCaerphilly Athletic
- Apr 10, 2027Carmarthen Townvsllanelli AFC
- Apr 10, 2027Swansea UniversityvsNewport City
- Apr 10, 2027Cardiff DraconiansvsLlantwit Major
- Apr 10, 2027Pontardawe TownvsPontypridd Town
- Apr 10, 2027Ynyshir AlbionsvsBaglan Dragons
- Apr 10, 2027Trethomas BluebirdsvsAberystwyth Town