Caerau (Ely) vs Caerphilly Athletic: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 29Kick-off on April 9, 2027 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Cwrt-yr-Ala, Caerdydd
The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 64%, against 19% for a draw and 17% for Caerphilly Athletic. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,455 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caerau (Ely) vs Caerphilly Athletic?
Caerau (Ely) starts as the favourite with a 179-point Elo edge (1,739 vs 1,560).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Caerau (Ely) vs Caerphilly Athletic
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Caerau (Ely)
Not enough data to predict the Caerau (Ely) lineup.
Caerphilly Athletic
Not enough data to predict the Caerphilly Athletic lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 10:38 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caerau (Ely) have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Caerphilly Athletic have 4, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 2-0 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 11, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Newport City(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Swansea University(away) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(home) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(away) | 2-2 | FAW Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Caerphilly Athletic score 1.4 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caerau (Ely) | 2.1 | 1.8 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Caerphilly Athletic | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2 | 10/14 | 11/14 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Caerau (Ely) sit 4th in FAW Championship (19 points from 10 matches) and Caerphilly Athletic sit 11th (11 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 18 | 19 |
| 11 | Caerphilly Athletic | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 11 |
A question about Caerau (Ely) vs Caerphilly Athletic?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caerau (Ely) vs Caerphilly Athletic?
- The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 64%, against 19% for a draw and 17% for Caerphilly Athletic.
- Where and when is Caerau (Ely) vs Caerphilly Athletic played?
- Caerau (Ely) vs Caerphilly Athletic is played on April 9, 2027 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Cwrt-yr-Ala, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 9, 2027Afan LidovsTreowen Stars
- Apr 10, 2027Carmarthen Townvsllanelli AFC
- Apr 10, 2027Swansea UniversityvsNewport City
- Apr 10, 2027Cardiff DraconiansvsLlantwit Major
- Apr 10, 2027Pontardawe TownvsPontypridd Town
- Apr 10, 2027Ynyshir AlbionsvsBaglan Dragons
- Apr 10, 2027Trethomas BluebirdsvsAberystwyth Town