Ajax vs ADO Den Haag: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 13Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
The Footlab model makes Ajax the favourite at 67%, against 19% for a draw and 14% for ADO Den Haag. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ajax vs ADO Den Haag?
Ajax starts as the favourite with a 242-point Elo edge (2,110 vs 1,868).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ajax have 9 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeats; ADO Den Haag have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Sion(away) | 4-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Heerenveen(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Shelbourne(away) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | PEC Zwolle(away) | 2-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Shelbourne(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles(away) | 1-3 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Groningen(home) | 1-4 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar(away) | 0-2 | Eredivisie |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Asteras Tripolis(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Lommel United(away) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Ajax win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 ADO Den Haag win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2021 | Ajax 5-0 ADO Den Haag | Eredivisie |
| Dec 20, 2020 | ADO Den Haag 2-4 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Dec 22, 2019 | Ajax 6-1 ADO Den Haag | Eredivisie |
| Oct 6, 2019 | ADO Den Haag 0-2 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Feb 24, 2019 | ADO Den Haag 1-5 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Dec 2, 2018 | Ajax 5-1 ADO Den Haag | Eredivisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Ajax score 2.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; ADO Den Haag score 1.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 2.1 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| ADO Den Haag | 1.9 | 1.2 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ajax sit 6th in Eredivisie (4 points from 2 matches) and ADO Den Haag sit 17th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Ajax | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ajax vs ADO Den Haag?
- The Footlab model makes Ajax the favourite at 67%, against 19% for a draw and 14% for ADO Den Haag.
- Where and when is Ajax vs ADO Den Haag played?
- Ajax vs ADO Den Haag is played on November 22, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Johan Cruijff Arena, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.