ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 15Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Bingoal Stadion, ‘s-Gravenhage
The Footlab model makes ADO Den Haag the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Excelsior. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior?
A very open match: only 72 Elo points separate ADO Den Haag (1,859) and Excelsior (1,931).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, ADO Den Haag have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Excelsior have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles(away) | 1-3 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Groningen(home) | 1-4 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar(away) | 0-2 | Eredivisie |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Asteras Tripolis(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Lommel United(away) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cambuur(away) | 4-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | De Graafschap(away) | 5-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Heracles(away) | 5-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | NAC Breda(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 ADO Den Haag win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Excelsior win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2025 | Excelsior 1-0 ADO Den Haag | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 30, 2024 | ADO Den Haag 0-5 Excelsior | Eerste Divisie |
| May 25, 2024 | Excelsior 7-1 ADO Den Haag | Eredivisie |
| May 22, 2024 | ADO Den Haag 1-2 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| May 29, 2022 | ADO Den Haag 4-4 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| May 24, 2022 | Excelsior 1-1 ADO Den Haag | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag on Jan 26, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
ADO Den Haag score 1.9 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Excelsior score 2.6 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag | 1.9 | 1.2 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Excelsior | 2.6 | 1.4 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
ADO Den Haag sit 17th in Eredivisie (0 points from 3 matches) and Excelsior sit 10th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior?
- The Footlab model makes ADO Den Haag the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Excelsior.
- Where and when is ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior played?
- ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior is played on December 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Bingoal Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.